Graeme NewingWednesday 5 August Yesterday there was a flurry of transactions in the portfolio for not much joy. It seems sometimes that I am running just to stay still. The stocks I sold, even SFI, one of my favourite stories, had broken short term uptrend lines. In summary the sales were: Admedus (AHZ), purchased at 7.8¢ in July, sold … Read more
Sunday 2 August Commodities, currencies, indices Nothing much has changed in commodites and currencies. I remain cautious on the US market, and some Asian markets have broken support. In contrast the All Ords looks OK, which is a little incongruous. Stocks Prospective zinc mine developer Terramin (TZN, price 20¢, mkt cap $356m) goes from strength to strength. … Read more
Sunday 2 August During the week TAS and NTC were purchased, the position in AZK was increased, and MBE, MRF and VMT were sold. The week finished with a cash position of 8%. The value of the portfolio declined by 3% during the week, taking YTD losses to 1%. Aziana (AZK) is the biggest position, … Read more
Sunday 2 August On Friday I sold out of a few stocks in order to bring my cash balance back up, so none of them were in breach of my guidelines. I will probably regret the sales but there it is. MBE was sold at 25¢, a small profit on the 22¢ purchase made in April. … Read more
Tuesday 28 July Today I purchased some shares in Tasman Resources (TAS, purchase price 5.9¢, close 6.5¢, mkt cap $20m). The shares had broken out a few days ago. Its holding of 436 million shares (46.2%) in Eden Energy (EDE, price 7.4¢, mkt cap $70m) is worth 60% more than its current share price. EDE is an … Read more
Sunday 26 July Commodities My negative view on most commodities of interest to Australian mining and petroleum investors remains unchanged. Gold (London fix $1,097) closed at a new low on its way to next support at around $1,000; copper (LME cash $5,340) and aluminium (LME cash $1,604) also found new lows. Oil (WTI $48.44) fell sharply while iron ore ($50.60) rallied … Read more
Saturday 25 July A lot more shares were purchased than sold during the week. The number of stocks held doubled to 20 and the cash position fell from 54% to just 11%. It seems that after a period of some weeks when very few opportunities were identified, the past week in particular saw numerous opportunities present … Read more
Saturday 25 July Yesterday I sold the holding in Redflow (RFX, sale price 2.6¢, closing price 2.7¢, mkt cap $91m) only a little above my purchase price of 25¢. It had broken the short term uptrend line some time ago and had lost momentum. Probably the wrong thing to do. Adacel (ADA, purchase price 83¢, … Read more
Thursday 23 July Today’s trade in OCC using Metastock v14 for the charting medium bought home much more clearly the disadvantage (for me, anyway) intrinsic to the Metastock system, which is that it omits periods of no trade being recorded, thus compressing some periods more than others. For shares that do not trade every minute or every … Read more
Thursday 23 July Today I sold the position in Orthocell (OCC, sale price 86¢, closing price 71.5¢). You might remember I bought the shares earlier in the week at 61¢, on a breakout. They have raced away since then and in fact today recorded a high of 95¢ before falling sharply away. I managed to sell … Read more
Tuesday 21 July Yesterday I splashed out and bought 7 shares, most of which I had held previously. Comments on each of these investments follow. Benitec (BLT, purchase price 81.5¢, current price 81.5¢, mkt cap $94m) is a biotech hopeful which I felt was about to surge. Possibly jumped the gun. FSA Group (FSA, purchase price 1.39, … Read more
Sunday 19 July Commodities Gold (now at $1133) has fallen decisively through key support and my interpretation is that it can fall several hundred dollars from here. Most base metals bounced during the week but I remain bearish; platinum and palladium have continued their fall; oil (WTI $50.83) could test recent lows of under $45; iron ore … Read more
Sunday 19 July During the week GER was sold, while AHZ, AZK, HUB and MRF were purchased. The portfolio is now down 1% for the financial year to date. Modest gains were made by most of the older stocks during the week but a fall in AZK affected the overall performance. I have found that it is … Read more
Sunday 19 July On Wednesday 15 Jul I purchased some Aziana shares (AZK) at 15.5¢ and some the holding in Greenearth Energy shares (GER) at 7.0¢. AZK had broken its downtrend line on the previous day by rising to 14.5¢. They took off on Wednesday. I managed to buy them at 15.5¢ and they continued … Read more
Monday 13 July Today I bought positions in three new stocks: AHZ at 7.8¢, HUB at $1.50 and MRF at 6.0¢. Unfortunately I had to pay up as each stock decided to go for a run today. Have run out of time to further discuss these tonight.
Sunday 12 July No change to my generally bearish view on commodities. During the week a new bear market low in iron ore was established at $44.10 before a recovery to $48.30 on Friday. I dare say we have not yet seen the bottom but what it will do this week is impossible to guess from its … Read more
Sunday 12 July The position in EGH was sold during the week on a break of trend, leaving just 7 stocks in the portfolio. Some more cash was added from outside sources during the week, increasing the cash position to 67% from last week’s 50%. As I said last week, I have been finding it … Read more
Tuesday 7 July Today I sold the position in retirement village owner and operator Eureka Group Holdings (EGH, 46¢, mkt cap $87m) at 46¢. I had picked them up in the SPP at 45¢ just a couple of weeks ago but since then they have been drifting each day and today they broke down through the … Read more
Sunday 5 July There was renewed weakness in commodities across the board during the past week, confirming my bearish stance. Iron ore fell $6.60 to $54.10 and has now established the potential for a trading range between $46.70 (the April low) and $65.40 (the June high). One interpretation of the fall in Brent oil to $60.32 … Read more
Sunday 5 July I sold a lot of stock during the week, being CLQ, LER, RHT, RNO, SRQ and ZIP. Most had broken uptrend lines. Probably I sold some prematurely – some have since rallied and others still could recover. Right or wrong, I just felt I needed to take some risk off the table. There are … Read more
Tuesday 30 June I had some unfilled sell orders left over from yesterday. All the RHT were done today at 4.2¢ and a bit under half of the SRQ at 1.2¢. The portfolio finished the financial year with overall gains of 31% and a cash position of 48%. Tomorrow I start with a clean slate.
Monday 29 June I sold out of all of the above positions today. It was a poor day on the market and some of them broke short term support. Also I felt I should increase my cash holdings ahead of Europe’s reaction to Greece, just in case.
Tuesday 23 June Today I sold the holding in Capitol Health (CAJ, 77¢, mkt cap $418m) at 76¢ because yesterday it closed at 80.5¢ and thus broke support at 82¢. I had bought them at 94.5¢ in May so it was certainly disappointing. But I couldn’t take the risk of further weakness – one interpretation is … Read more
Tuesday 23 June Ziptel (ZIP, price 82.5¢, mkt cap $45m) had been one of my favourite stocks, but in the last couple of days it has collapsed, falling from Friday’s close of $1.04 to as low as 74¢ today, before rallying to close at 82.5¢. The trigger was an announcement by the company on Monday. … Read more
Tuesday 23 June Leaf Resources (LER, 15.5¢, mkt cap $18m) is one of my longer-held stocks. I had bought them in November through March at an average price of 19.1¢ including brokerage and they hadn’t done a lot since then, just consolidating on low volume. Yesterday they finished at 15¢. There was a bit of excitement … Read more
Sunday 21 June The portfolio’s value declined during the week, such that the percentage gains for the year to date fell to 34% from 38%. The main reason for the fall was the weakness in AZK, which had closed the previous week at 21¢ but fell like a stone once it broke support at 20¢. I finally sold it … Read more
Friday 19 June Today I sold out of CSG Ltd (CSV, price $1.57, mkt cap $446m) at $1.56. The stock is looking a bit toppy to me, having hit the top of its medium term upchannel at $1.73 on 1 June and it has more recently broken its short term uptrend. Its medium term uptrend is … Read more
Friday 19 June Today I sold the position in Aziana (AZK, price 14¢) at 14.5¢. I commented on AZK yesterday, confessing that I got it wrong from a trading point of view. I should have sold it at 19¢ on Wednesday when it broke key support but felt I would give it the benefit of the … Read more
Thursday 18 June Shares in Aziana (AZK, price 15¢) dropped like a stone today, falling 3.5¢ to 15¢. Unfortunately I didn’t sell. I got to the desk a little late, to find them at 16.5¢ already and I froze. Badly handled. I should have taken my medicine like a man. What a wimp! AZK is being … Read more
Wednesday 17 June Today the shares in Aziana (AZK) broke through support at 20¢ and fell 3¢ to 17.5¢. If I apply my normal investment strategy I should sell tomorrow. The fall came after an announcement made today by Aziana, explaining the delay in calling the meeting to approve the Brainchip deal, being negotiation of amended terms … Read more