Newcastle, Saturday 21 DecemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyBond yields and the USD are rising and everything else – stock prices, hard assets, commodities – are correcting downward.Government bondsWell, that was a surprise! The yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.72% up 0.10%, wkly, daily) rose against my expectations, to above the … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 14 DecemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyA boring week, with not much happening.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.62% up 0.28%, wkly, daily) rose during the week but the balance of probabilities is that the next big move will be down.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (107.0 up 0.9 pts, … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 7 DecemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyFocus on bitcoin again.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.33% down 0.04%, wkly, daily) has pulled back further. I see this as more evidence that the yield could fall to strong support around 4.0% over coming weeks..Fiat currenciesThe USD index (106.1 up … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 30 NovemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyBond yields have peaked and are likely to fall.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.37% down 0.23%, wkly, daily) has pulled back. Earlier this month it had broken through its downtrend line but I now might have to redraw the line (shown … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 23 NovemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyIt’s still bitcoin.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.60 down 0.01%, wkly, daily) is losing its upward momentum.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (107.6 up 0.9 pts, wkly, daily) has made another high in its sharp short term uptrend. In doing so it broke … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 16 NovemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyIt looks like the rally in bond yields and the USD will continue.Gold has been affected adversely by the strength in the USD. But bitcoin has ignored that and has commenced another upleg on its rapid journey towards mainstream adoption and becoming a … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 9 NovemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyAnd the winner is …….Bitcoin!Government bondsThe day after the US election result was declared the yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.48% down 0.07%, wkly, daily) broke through the medium-term downtrend line in place since the high of 5.15% on 23 October 2023, but … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 2 NovemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyCouldn’t help noting that T-Bonds and the USD, and BTC for that matter, are at decision points which could be resolved one way or the other next week with the results of the US presidential election.Government bondsFor the second consecutive week the yield … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 26 OctoberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyHard currencies still to the fore.Has the USD peaked. Ditto bond yields?Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.50% up 0.12%, wkly, daily) rose during the week to a level very close to the downtrend line drawn from the peak of 5.15% seen … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 19 OctoberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyIt’s all hard currencies.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.38% even, wkly, daily) closed largely unchanged.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (103.5 up 0.6 pts, wkly, daily) continued in its short term uptrend but moved closeer to its longer term downtrend.Against the USD, the … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 12 OctoberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyHard currencies remain the standout.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.38% up 0.12%, wkly, daily) has risen further. It has broken its short term downtrend but the longer term downtrend is still some way off at about 4.55% so at this point, … Read more
Newcastle, Sunday 6 NovemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyThere were some items of interest this week.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.27% up 0.27%, wkly, daily) rallied a little further, to the extent that the short term downtrend is under pressure. But the longer term downtrend is not under threat.Fiat … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 28 SeptemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyMy cold limited what I could achieve today.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.07% up 0.09%, wkly, daily) bounced off support at 3.94% but continues in its downtrend.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (100.38 down 0.34 pts, wkly, daily) continues in downtrend.Against the USD, … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 21 SeptemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyCommodities and hard currencies to the fore.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.07% up 0.09%, wkly, daily) continues in its downtrend.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (100.72 down 0.39 pts, wkly, daily) fell sharply, hitting a new recent low during the week.The USD is … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 14 SeptemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyIt’s all gold.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (3.98% down 0.04%, wkly, daily) matched the low seen in December 2023 earlier in the week but did not push through it. Should it do so, it would reinforce my view that further weaknesss … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 7 SeptemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyKey price support levels have been cut in oil and iron ore. Rare earths are recovering but is it sustainable?Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.02% down 0.18%, wkly, daily) has fallen further, almost to the low seen in December 2023.Fiat currenciesThe … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 24 AugustPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyFalling bond yields setting the tone for equity bulls.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.10% down 0.05%, wkly, daily) is in clear long term downtrend.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (100.72 down 1.75 pts, wkly, daily) plunged after breaking through a support level. It … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 3 AugustPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyVERY IMPORTANT. Change of trend in 30-yr TBond yield is confirmed.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.11% down 0.35%, wkly, daily) has fallen heavily, confirming the break of the 2020-2024 uptrend. It’s the same message everywhere I look, whether it be 5yr, … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 27 JulyPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyThe feature this week is the weak AUD.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.46% even, wkly, daily) continues to hold above support at around 4.40%. I still think the weakness will resume at some point.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (104.31 down 0.08 pts, … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 20 JulyPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyEverything went a bit awry on FridayGovernment bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.45% up 0.05%, wkly, daily) marked time this week. It continued its fall initially but on Friday it rallied to close slightly ahead over the week. The major uprend broke … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 13 JulyPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyEquities bull markets in full swing as bond yields fall.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.40% down 0.07%, wkly, daily) fell a little further. My view remains that yields are on the way down.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (104.09 down 0.78 pts, wkly, … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 6 JulyPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyBond yields have resumed their fall and this is having a positive impact on equity prices.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.47% down 0.03%, wkly, daily) rallied further on Monday then pulled back sharply to close down on the week. In my … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 29 JunePrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyLittle new to reportGovernment bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.50% up 0.10%, wkly, daily) is consolidating after previously breaking its 4-yr uptrend. It is likely that we’ll see a further fall in yield in due course.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (105.87 up 0.07 … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 22 JunePrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyNothing much new this week.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.40% up 0.05%, wkly, daily) is consolidating after previously breaking its 4-yr uptrend. It is likely that we’ll see a further fall in yield in due course.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (105.80 up … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 15 JunePrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyThe yield of long-dated T-Bonds has confirmed a change of direction to downwards. That is bullish for equities.Government bondsAs I half expected would happen, the yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.35% down 0.20%, wkly, daily) has indeed broken the uptrend line in place … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 8 JunePrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyHave we seen a top in bond yields? If so, it would be positive for equity markets.Government bondsWith bond prices on the rise, the 4-yr uptrend line in the yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.55% down 0.10%, wkly, daily) shows signs of breaking … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 1 June 2024Price movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyNothing exciting to report.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.65% up 0.08%, wkly, daily) rallied from its long term uptrend, thus confirming the trend.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (104.67 down 0.05 pts, wkly, daily) marked time this week but remains in its … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 25 May 2024Price movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyAll looking pretty ordinary at the moment.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.57% up 0.01%, wkly, daily) traded in a narrow range during the week, and remains right on its long-term uptrend.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (104.72 up 0.27 pts, wkly, daily) … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 18 May 2024Price movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyGlobal bull markets in equities, in hard currencies, and in commodities except oil, lithium, and rare earths.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.56% down 0.09%, wkly, daily) is sitting right on its long term uptrend line. Ordinarily one would expect it … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 11 MayPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyNothing of much note this week.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.55% down 0.12%, wkly, daily) pulled back during the week but remains in its 4yr uptrend.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (103.50 up 0.27 pts, wkly, daily) managed a modest rally after the … Read more