Newcastle, Saturday 14 SeptemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyIt’s all gold.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (3.98% down 0.04%, wkly, daily) matched the low seen in December 2023 earlier in the week but did not push through it. Should it do so, it would reinforce my view that further weaknesss … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 7 SeptemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyKey price support levels have been cut in oil and iron ore. Rare earths are recovering but is it sustainable?Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.02% down 0.18%, wkly, daily) has fallen further, almost to the low seen in December 2023.Fiat currenciesThe … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 24 AugustPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyFalling bond yields setting the tone for equity bulls.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.10% down 0.05%, wkly, daily) is in clear long term downtrend.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (100.72 down 1.75 pts, wkly, daily) plunged after breaking through a support level. It … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 3 AugustPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyVERY IMPORTANT. Change of trend in 30-yr TBond yield is confirmed.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.11% down 0.35%, wkly, daily) has fallen heavily, confirming the break of the 2020-2024 uptrend. It’s the same message everywhere I look, whether it be 5yr, … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 27 JulyPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyThe feature this week is the weak AUD.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.46% even, wkly, daily) continues to hold above support at around 4.40%. I still think the weakness will resume at some point.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (104.31 down 0.08 pts, … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 20 JulyPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyEverything went a bit awry on FridayGovernment bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.45% up 0.05%, wkly, daily) marked time this week. It continued its fall initially but on Friday it rallied to close slightly ahead over the week. The major uprend broke … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 13 JulyPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyEquities bull markets in full swing as bond yields fall.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.40% down 0.07%, wkly, daily) fell a little further. My view remains that yields are on the way down.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (104.09 down 0.78 pts, wkly, … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 6 JulyPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyBond yields have resumed their fall and this is having a positive impact on equity prices.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.47% down 0.03%, wkly, daily) rallied further on Monday then pulled back sharply to close down on the week. In my … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 29 JunePrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyLittle new to reportGovernment bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.50% up 0.10%, wkly, daily) is consolidating after previously breaking its 4-yr uptrend. It is likely that we’ll see a further fall in yield in due course.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (105.87 up 0.07 … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 22 JunePrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyNothing much new this week.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.40% up 0.05%, wkly, daily) is consolidating after previously breaking its 4-yr uptrend. It is likely that we’ll see a further fall in yield in due course.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (105.80 up … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 15 JunePrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyThe yield of long-dated T-Bonds has confirmed a change of direction to downwards. That is bullish for equities.Government bondsAs I half expected would happen, the yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.35% down 0.20%, wkly, daily) has indeed broken the uptrend line in place … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 8 JunePrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyHave we seen a top in bond yields? If so, it would be positive for equity markets.Government bondsWith bond prices on the rise, the 4-yr uptrend line in the yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.55% down 0.10%, wkly, daily) shows signs of breaking … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 1 June 2024Price movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyNothing exciting to report.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.65% up 0.08%, wkly, daily) rallied from its long term uptrend, thus confirming the trend.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (104.67 down 0.05 pts, wkly, daily) marked time this week but remains in its … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 25 May 2024Price movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyAll looking pretty ordinary at the moment.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.57% up 0.01%, wkly, daily) traded in a narrow range during the week, and remains right on its long-term uptrend.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (104.72 up 0.27 pts, wkly, daily) … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 18 May 2024Price movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyGlobal bull markets in equities, in hard currencies, and in commodities except oil, lithium, and rare earths.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.56% down 0.09%, wkly, daily) is sitting right on its long term uptrend line. Ordinarily one would expect it … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 11 MayPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyNothing of much note this week.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.55% down 0.12%, wkly, daily) pulled back during the week but remains in its 4yr uptrend.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (103.50 up 0.27 pts, wkly, daily) managed a modest rally after the … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 4 MayPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyBig movements in currencies and US markets on Friday.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.66% down 0.12%, mthly, wkly, daily) pulled back during the week but remains in its 4-yr uptrend.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (105.03 down 0.91 pts, wkly, daily) pulled back … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 27 AprilPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyWill the rally in equity markets continue?Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.78% up 0.07%, wkly, daily) managed to eke out a new recent high on Thursday before closing the week marginally ahead. The long term uptrend is well intact. Looking ahead, … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 20 AprilPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyEquities in correction.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.71% up 0.11%, wkly, daily) continued its rise. Fiat currenciesThe USD index (106.15 up 0.12 pts, wkly, daily) consolidated in a narrow to retain the gains made in previous weeks.Against the USD, the AUD … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 13 AprilPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyEquity markets are likely to correct in the short term.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.60% up 0.07%, wkly, daily) continued its rally during the week. It remains in its short term and long term uptrends, with little resistance ahead of it … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 6 AprilPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyIt’s gold/silver/copper, and possibly oil, and potentially bitcoin if it can break through again.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.53% up 0.18%, wkly, daily) has risen further to a new high for the year and it remains in its short and medium … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 30 MarchPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyThe commentary covers only four days this week as markets were closed on Good Friday. Nothing dramatic to report.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.40% down 0.04%, mthly, wkly, daily) remains in its short term uptrend of 3 months duration and also … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 23 MarchPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyBTC is pulling back and oil could do likewise. Copper still looks good and iron ore still does not. Meanwhile, has NdPr bottomed? Too early to tell, of course, but it picked up a little on Friday.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 16 MarchPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyBitcoin has confirmed its breakout to new record highs. And copper may be commencing a new bull trend.Government bondsYou might have noticed I no longer talk about bond prices because I believe that bond yields i.e. the interest rate that bondholders are prepared … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 9 MarchPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyGold and bitcoin remain strong against fiat currencies and I believe that will continue in the long term.There is not much joy in mining and petroleum commodities just yet.I continue with my view that banks should be bought and resource stocks (except for … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 2 MarchPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyIron ore is likely to fall further but gold and bitcoin look good.The All Ords has at last pushed through the January 2022 high to move into record territory.Looks like the banks will outperform.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.33% down 0.05%, … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 24 FebruaryPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyUnfortunately I forgot to renew my subscription for the futures data package that I use, so have no access this weekend to updated charts on government bonds, fiat currencies, gold prices and some commodities. And I cannot renew my subsctiption until Monday.But I … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 17 FebruaryPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyNothing much happening, except in crypto.Government bondsThe yield for the 30-yr T-Bond (4.45% up 0.07%, wkly, daily) has made a new rally high. This implies a further rise could occur.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (104.30 up 0.19 pts, wkly, daily) made a new rally … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 10 FebruaryPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyEquitiy markets are in bull markets, and bitcoin is outperforming gold.Government bondsThe yield of the longer-dated 30-yr T-Bond (4.38% up 0.15%, wkly, daily) traded in a narrow range this week. The long term uptrend remains intact.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (104.11 up 0.19 pts, … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 3 FebruaryPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyNothing too dramatic this week.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.23% down 0.16%, wkly, daily) fell sharply earlier in the week then rallied sharply on Friday. The long-term uptrend in the yield remains intact.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (103.92 up 0.49 pts, wkly, … Read more