Saturday 1 JuneInterest ratesUS Treasuries increased sharply in price during the week and yields thus collapsed (and the trend may not yet be over). So the inversion of the yield curve has deepened further. What does this mean? Recession? One thing is for sure – the Fed will have to act quickly by buying treasury … Read more
Sunday 25 MayStill travelling. Am writing this from a suburb of Auckland.Interest ratesThere was another good rise in US Treasury prices during the week, clearing the previous high. Here is the corresponding yield chart. This trend looks likely to continue for some time to come.The uptrend continues in Eurobunds, Gilts and Ozbonds too, with the … Read more
Sunday 19 MayInterest ratesUS Treasury bond prices rose further during the week. They remain within their uptrend and and are approaching the high of 150.5 achieved in March. If this is overcome they could go a lot higher (and thus yields lower). The next level of resistance is at 153.4, while the record high of … Read more
Saturday 11 MayInterest ratesUS Treasury bonds rose in price during the week, reconfirming the uptrend. So I would think yields have further to fall. It was the same thing for Gilts, Eurobunds and Ozbonds.Fiat currenciesThe USD Index fell slightly during the week rather than continue with its bull market. There is now a possibility that … Read more
Sunday 5 MayInterest ratesOn Wednesday the US Treasury bond price made a new recent high, then pulled back in the last couple of days, so essentially marked time over the week. Ditto elsewhere. But the bull market is intact.Fiat currenciesThe USD Index gave up all of the previous week’s gains but the uptrend remains intact.Although … Read more
Saturday 27 AprilInterest ratesUS Treasury bonds rose during the week, thus keeping alive the theory that a new bull market upswing commenced in November last year. Government bond prices in other major jurisdictions did likewise.Fiat currenciesAn important confirmation was made this week when the USD Index broke out of its consolidation zone of many weeks … Read more
Sunday 21 AprilInterest ratesUS Treasuries slipped further during the week; they will have to resume their rise shortly in order for the uptrend to remain intact. Likewise Ozbonds. But Eurobunds and Gilts rose a touch and their uptrends are well intact.Fiat currenciesThe USD remains in its consolidation zone. Likewise the AUD. Nothing much else to … Read more
Saturday 13 AprilInterest ratesAnother week, another small fall in government bond prices post the surge in March. But it doesn’t change the bullish picture. Here is the Treasury Bond price.Fiat currenciesThe USD Index fell a little during the week but the overall pattern looks bullish with trading over the past several months forming an upward … Read more
Sunday 7 AprInterest ratesGovernment bonds retraced some of their rise during the week and it looks to me that these are classic pullbacks to the old resistance now support. The uptrends remain in place. Here are the weekly charts for US Treasuries, Gilts, Eurobunds and Ozbonds.Fiat currenciesLittle change of any significance during the week except … Read more
Saturday 30 MarchInterest ratesThis week saw yet another leap in government bond prices in the US, UK, Europe and Australia (which is all those I monitor). So yields have continued their fall. Here is a weekly chart for 30 year Treasury yields from 2005.Fiat currenciesThe US Dollar Index remains in its consolidation zone, and the … Read more
Saturday 23 MarchInterest ratesGovernment bond prices shot up during the week as fears of recession were renewed. It was quite a milestone so I have lots of charts for you.US Treasury bond prices increased 2.34 pts, the biggest rise since December, and confirmed the new bull market. Yields fell 0.13% to a new recent low … Read more
Saturday 16 MarchInterest ratesUS Treasuries increased by 0.7 pts during the week but remain in their consolidation pattern between 143.6 and 146.6 pts. Difficult to determine from the chart which way it will eventually jump but if pressed I would say up (i.e. yield down).Gilts and Eurobunds marked time and it remains the case that … Read more
Saturday 9 MarchInterest ratesUS Treasury bonds have rallied a little further, with yields dropping from 3.1% to 3.0%, but remain in their 3-month consolidation zone.Government bonds in other jurisdictions have rallied too, and I note that Eurobonds have hit a new record high. This suggests that the probability of a recession in Europe has increased.Fiat … Read more
Sunday 3 MarchI have had a very busy weekend what with one thing or another, including trying to finish off the research report on PET, so this week’s market review will be brief.Interest ratesUS Treasuries fell in price during the week, briefly falling below support on Friday before finishing just above it. So for now, … Read more
Sunday 24 FebruaryInterest ratesUS Treasuries continue to mark time within their consolidation zone but my view remains that the most likely future direction is up (i.e. yields to fall).The same comments apply to government bonds in other jurisdictions, including our own.Fiat currenciesThe USD Index fell slightly during the week but remains within its consolidation zone. … Read more
Saturday 16 FebruaryInterest ratesUS Treasury bonds remain in their consolidation zone. I still feel the most likely future direction is up (i.e. yields to fall further).Government bond prices in other jurisdictions marked time too. My views on these have not changed either (prices going up, yields falling).Fiat currenciesThe USD Index rose 0.3 pts more during … Read more
Saturday 9 FebruaryInterest ratesGovernment bond prices in the major economies rose a little further during the week (i.e. yields fell). In particular, Gilts and Eurobunds rose to new records. And the rise in Gilts confirms the likelihood of a substantial upwards move ahead. Interesting times!Fiat currenciesWell, that didn’t last long. I said last week that … Read more
Saturday 2 FebruaryInterest ratesI have a new computer and had to recreate my charts. The data I have now seems different. Am struggling with futures stuff, continuous spliced contracts and back adjusted prices – it’s a different world. So I will just say that long dated government bond prices increased a little further during the … Read more
Saturday 26 JanuaryInterest ratesUS Treasuries are still in short term uptrend, just, while Eurobunds hit another new record.Ozbonds spiked sharply upwards once more, suggesting that the blip in early January was not just a fat finger. It suggests, of course, that investors believe inflation will fall and indeed, that the economy is in trouble.Fiat currenciesThe … Read more
Saturday 19 JanuaryInterest ratesBond prices retreated a bit more this week but there is no questioning the fact that the downtrend in US Treasuries was broken some weeks ago; nor that Eurobunds remain in a steep uptrend in record territory. Gilts are the exception because they did not manage to follow Eurobunds higher; instead Gilts … Read more
Sunday 13 JanuaryInterest ratesGovernment bond prices in the main jurisdictions pulled back a little during the week. The short term trend (of increasing prices and reducing yields) remains in place but, at least in the case of the 10 year Ozbond, the frenzied rise in the previous week had some attributes of a buying climax. … Read more
Saturday 5 JanuaryInterest ratesUS Treasury bond prices jumped again during the week, continuing their uptrend. Thus yields again fell sharply. Elsewhere: Eurobunds are continuing their push into record highs; Gilts are threatening to do so; and the Ozbond (to coin a phrase) took an almighty leap before retreating a bit. The theory, that the great … Read more
Saturday 29 DecemberInterest ratesUS Treasuries maintained their gains this week, thus further confirming the uptrend. Likewise government bonds in other jurisdictions.Fiat currenciesThe USD Index remains in uptrend, just.Against the USD, the AUD at 70.4¢ remains above short term support, but the currency has weakened against the CNY, JPY and GBP.Hard currenciesGold in NY rose $24.90 … Read more
Trading portfolioThe portfolio fell 0.1% today, taking the loss for the week to 0.6% and for the YTD (from 23 Oct) to 11.0%.Long term portfolioThe portfolio fell 0.9% today, taking the loss for the week to 0.6% and for the YTD (from 23 Oct) to 9.4%. All three stocks fell 2-3%. Nothing much else to … Read more
Sunday 23 DecemberInterest ratesWow! US Treasury bonds jumped in price last week, confirming the breakout of the previous two weeks. The downtrend from the 2016 high is clearly broken. And the yield has absolutely been smashed! Deflation, recession, call it what you will, the outlook has changed dramatically in the last few weeks.In contrast, Eurobunds … Read more
Saturday 15 DecemberInterest ratesUS Treasury bond prices pulled back a little during the week but remain outside the downtrend line.Eurobund prices pushed a little further into record territory. Gilts rose too and in doing so, broke through key resistance to follow Eurobunds into that rarified atmosphere. And Australian 10 year bond prices are close to … Read more
Saturday 8 DecemberInterest ratesWow! US Treasury prices at 143 have cut the downtrend in place since the 2016 peak of a little over 166. So bond yields have fallen sharply, from 3.31% a week ago to 3.14% now. To complete the picture, Eurobunds have broken upwards to new highs after their lengthy consolidation, and Gilts … Read more
Saturday 1 December Interest rates US government bond prices rose a little during the week and thus yields fell correspondingly. Doesn’t change the outlook overall. Eurobund prices are on the verge of breaking to new highs, with Gilts not far behind. Fiat currencies The USD Index rose a little within its medium term uptrend without … Read more
Saturday 24 November Interest rates US Treasury yields pulled back a touch more to 3.31% (i.e. bond prices rose a touch) but the medium term target remains 4.0%. Eurobunds rose marginally too, and are testing their historic highs. Likewise Gilts. Fiat currencies The USD Index rose a bit more within its medium term uptrend. The … Read more
Sunday 18 November Interest rates Treasury prices increased and yields backed off further during the week, from 3.39% to 3.27%, but the medium term target remains around 4%. Government bonds in other jurisdictions did likewise but the moves were not significant in the overall scheme of things. Fiat currencies The USD Index ratcheted a little … Read more