Saturday 10 November Interest rates Treasury yields backed off a touch during the week to 3.39% but the medium term target remains around 4%. In other jurisdictions bond prices cut their long term uptrends some months ago but subsequently, rather than breaking down like in the US, they continue to build consolidation patterns near record … Read more
Sunday 4 November Interest rates US Treasury bond prices fell back during the week to test the previous low, and bond yields rose 0.14% to a new high of 3.45% (when I say new, I mean new for the current bond bear market which commenced in July 2016 when the yield bottomed at 2.1%). The … Read more
Saturday 27 October Interest rates Government bond prices rallied around the world this week, presumably due to a flight to safety from correcting stock markets. US treasury prices rallied to the extent that the short term downtrend line has been broken. There is little question that the long term downtrend remains intact and most likely … Read more
Saturday 20 October Interest rates US Treasuries are consolidating after that critical fall on 3 October, almost three weeks ago. At the same time they remain in their short term downtrend. If the downtrend is to be respected, renewed weakness should occur within the next week or so. Across the Atlantic, Eurobond prices have rallied … Read more
Sunday 14 October Interest rates After that dramatic fall of the previous week, the US T-Bond price has rallied to a little below that previous support (now acting as resistance to further gains) and so the yield has fallen, but the message has not changed. Considerably lower prices/higher yields are coming in the short to … Read more
Saturday 6 October Interest rates The great 34-year bull market in long dated Treasuries is finally dead, and the bear market has finally been confirmed, following the decisive break in key support during the week. Cannot over-emphasise that fact. We have entered a new age of inflation, albeit that statement seems far-fetched at present. During … Read more
Sunday 30 September Interest rates US Treasuries pulled back a touch from that resistance at 139.7 pts during the week, reinforcing the strength of that barrier. It corresponds with a yield of 3.25% Government bond prices in other jurisdictions did not move much either, so no change in views. Fiat currencies The USD Index rallied … Read more
Saturday 22 September Interest rates The coming week could be a crucial one for bond prices and yields, because this week the US Treasury bond price fell to 140.3 pts – right on key support. Any further weakness would confirm the Great Bond Bear Market, with an initial target of 110 to 115 pts. The … Read more
Saturday 15 September Interest rates US Treasuries further declined in price during the week, so that their yield rose from 3.10% to 3.13%. As I said last week, a move to 3.2% would put bond prices in danger of breaking down, while a move to 3.3% would confirm it. Bond prices in other First World … Read more
Saturday 8 September Interest rates US government bond prices fell during the week, so that their yield rose from 3.04% to 3.10%. A move to 3.2% would put bond prices in danger of breaking down, while a move to 3.3% would confirm it. Bond prices in Europe, the UK and Australia broke their long term … Read more
Saturday 1 September Interest rates During the week US Treasuries pulled back a little, after having touched the downtrend line in the previous week. So it remains in its seven month consolidation zone. Fiat currencies The USD Index weakened a little before rallying on Friday to close scarcely changed on the week. At this point … Read more
Saturday 25 August Interest rates US Treasury bond prices rose further during the week to 145.6 pts and are nudging up against resistance at the downtrend line drawn from the 2016 peak. If the consensus is correct then prices will retreat from here. If the consensus is incorrect then bond prices will breakout to the … Read more
Sunday 19 August Interest rates The US Treasury bond price at 144.5 pts remains in its six-month consolidation zone, and is being pinched into a corner by the downtrend line from the 2016 peak (currently sitting at around 145.8 pts but of course declining each week) and the support at around 141 pts. I would … Read more
Sunday 12 August Interest rates US Treasuries rallied strongly during the week, so are further away from breaking support. Government bonds elsewhere did likewise. Fiat currencies Ah ha! The USD Index has at last broken free of its two to three month consolidation zone. Actually it looks to me as if that consolidation zone is … Read more
Saturday 4 August Interest rates US government bond prices scarcely changed during the week, but still appear to be on their way to test support at around 140 pts for yields of 3.2%. Any further increase in yields above that (say to above 3.3% – these things are not that accurate) would confirm the bear … Read more
Saturday 28 July Interest rates US bond prices lurched further downwards this week, and at 142.9 are still on track to test that support around 140 (yield around 3.2%). Eurobund prices pulled back but are still in uptrend. Ditto Gilts. Fiat currencies The USD Index remains in that tight little consolidation zone so no change … Read more
Saturday 21 July Interest rates US Treasuries fell in price this week so yields picked up a touch. If I was to make a guess, it would be that the hesitation is over and that bond prices now 144 are going to fall again and test that support at around 140 (yield around 3.2%). If … Read more
Saturday 14 July Interest rates There was very little movement in bond prices this week, so no change to view. Fiat currencies The US Dollar Index continues to trade in the 94-95.5 range, constrained by resistance to a further rise. My feeling remains that it will push through 95.5 pts in due course, and I … Read more
Saturday 7 July Interest rates US Treasury prices rose further during the week and are now nudging up against the downtrend line from the 2016 peak. The implied bond yield has fallen to the extent that the uptrend in rates has broken on a tentative basis. And as I mentioned last week, the Eurobund price … Read more
Saturday 30 June Interest rates US government bond prices increased during the week, leaving them even further away from confirming their bear market. In fact, if they rise much further they would be challenging the downtrend line drawn from the 2016 top. The same thing goes for Gilts albeit in their case resistance is in … Read more
Saturday 23 June Interest rates US government bond prices are still stuck in consolidation zones above support, and if the latter gives way then the new bear market in bonds will be confirmed. The same can be said for UK and Australian government bonds. But Euro bond prices are continuing to flirt with the idea … Read more
Sunday 17 June Interest rates No change to the view, as government bond price movements were minor. For example at some 143 pts the US Treasury bond is still trading above support of around 140-141 pts. Fiat currencies The USD Index rose to the top of its recent trading range during the week but did … Read more
Saturday 9 June Interest rates US government bond prices retreated a little but they remain above support. To repeat, until that support breaks down and yields break convincingly above 3.2%, we cannot be sure that the great bull market for bonds is over. But I am reasonably confident that the break will occur in due … Read more
Saturday 2 June Interest rates US government bond prices rallied further during the week and at one stage yields fell under 3% to match the low reached in April. Germany’s bond prices jumped out of a two year consolidation zone, which I had thought would be a top formation, to a new record high, albeit … Read more
Saturday 26 May Interest rates Well, US bond prices rallied strongly during the week, so the tentative break of support did not carry through. In other words, it was a “false breakdown”. So I have changed my mind – any substantial fall has been deferred. Eurobunds have also rallied strongly – to such an extent … Read more
Saturday 19 May Interest rates On Tuesday the US Treasury Bond broke through key support, so as far as I am concerned the new bear market has been confirmed. The corollary was that bond yields jumped above resistance at 3.22% albeit the week finished at 3.21%. So the next few months could see quite a rapid … Read more
Saturday 12 May Interest rates No change. I still believe the next major movement in bond prices will be down. Fiat currencies As I expected the USD Index essentially marked time during the week and finished up slightly lower, having come up against resistance in the previous week. This set the tone for the rest … Read more
Saturday 5 May Interest rates US treasuries have continued their little rally off that support I mentioned previously, which on a yield basis is at 3.22% for the 30 year bonds. While the strength may continue for some time yet, that support is likely to give way eventually, confirming the bear market. Fiat currencies The … Read more
Saturday 28 April Bond markets During the week US Treasury prices fell to, then bounced from, the strong support at 141.5 now tested four times since November 2016. I continue to believe that this support will fail in coming weeks, thus confirming the great bond bear market. Naturally, other government bond markets are exhibiting similar … Read more
Saturday 21 April Interest rates A fall in global bond prices occurred last week and sets them up for another test of support. For the US Treasuries series that I follow, which is currently priced at 143.09, that support is at around 141.30. Should that fail, with a fall to say 140, watch out below! … Read more