Sunday 15 April Interest rates We are still in the bounce phase for bond prices, with only minor movement during the week. Fiat currencies Little movement in the fiats. The AUD rose to a little over 78¢ on Friday before retreating to 77.66¢ but has not yet broken its short term downtrend. My feeling is … Read more
Sunday 8 April Interest rates We are still “in the bounce” in government bond prices, which could have some way to run. Fiat currencies The USD Index at about 90.1 pts is in the 11th week of a consolidation pattern just above its long term uptrend. But it is also constrained on the upside by … Read more
Sunday 1 April Interest rates The rally in US government bond prices continued last week, with the yield on the 30 year T-bonds falling 0.104% to 2.972%. They had peaked at just over 3.2% in early February, before the current stock market correction commenced. Conceivably the yields could fall to as low as 2.85% in … Read more
Sunday 25 March Interest rates Government bond prices rose a touch more during the week, thus continuing the trend of recent weeks. I still believe we have seen the top and that this is just a pause in the longer term downtrend, but it could continue for a while. Fiat currencies The USD Index fell … Read more
Interest rates Government bond prices rallied further during the week, reinforcing the recent low as important support. I remain of the view that this support will give way in due course. Fiat currencies The various currencies generally remain becalmed within their consolidation zones. That said, the USD Index rose a touch and the AUD fell … Read more
Sunday 11 March Interest rates Bond prices scarcely moved during the week so there is no change to my view. Fiat currencies Ditto for fiats, really. The USD Index at around 90 pts is holding above the support from an uptrend line dating from 2011 but to me, it seems likely that this level will fail … Read more
Sunday 4 March Interest rates As I thought they might, the bond markets rallied last week, bouncing off support. Hard to say how much further they could rally, possibly a few more basis points. Eventually the downtrend should resume. Fiat currencies The USD Index rallied a little last week, then pulled back into its consolidation … Read more
Saturday 24 February Interest rates US treasuries have now fallen to the support level afforded by the 2017 low, so there is some potential for a bounce. European bonds have already started to do so. Fiat currencies The USD Index is still hovering just above the uptrend line from the 2011 low, so the AUD … Read more
Sunday 18 February Interest rates US government bond prices steadied last week, pausing in their declines. They are quite close to the 2017 lows so may mark time for a while longer, or even recover a bit, but the long term trend is definitely down. Fiat currencies The USD fell last week but did not … Read more
Sunday 11 February Interest rates There is absolutely no doubt about it now. The great bull market in government bonds is over. So, how quickly could the whole thing unravel? Slowly, I think. The yield on the US 30 year bond is currently 3.136%. There will be some resistance at the 3.2% level dating from … Read more
Sunday 4 February I was out of the office most of the weekend so have cut this commentary short. Interest rates The weakness in major bond prices intensified last week, further clarifying the picture. I can state with more certainty that we have seen the top of the almighty bull market. Some confirmations are still … Read more
Saturday 20 January Interest rates I wrote last week that the long term uptrend in US government bonds was still intact, just, but that another week or two like that and it would be a different story. A week on, bond prices have fallen again, and crucial support at 149.1 was broken intraday on Friday … Read more
Saturday 13 January Interest rates Bond prices fell during the week. US Treasuries fell close to their long term uptrend line but remain above it, so are arguably still in long term uptrend, just. Much the same picture for Eurobunds and Gilts, and for Australian 10 year bonds come to that. But another week or … Read more
Sunday 7 January Interest rates The long term bull market in global bond prices remains intact. Fiat currencies The AUD has strengthened further against the USD within its long term bull market. Currently at 78.6¢, in my opinion it will test the Sep 2017 high of 81.24¢ within the next month or two. If that … Read more
Saturday 30 December Interest rates Government bond prices generally rose during the week, so they remain in their long term bull markets. Fiat currencies I said a week ago that the AUD may have bottomed against the USD and that proved correct, with the AUD rising sharply to over 78¢ this week. I would think … Read more
Saturday 23 December Interest rates Bonds fell a little during the week, but the long term bull market remains intact. Fiat currencies There were no movement during the week that changed the outlook for any of the currencies. The AUD rallied further during the week against the USD and is now 77.15¢, reinforcing my view … Read more
Sunday 17 December Interest rates Long term bond prices generally rose last week so there is no change to my view that the long term bull market remains in place. Fiat currencies Well, the little Aussie battler DID bounce against the USD, to the 76-77¢ range, and it suggests that the AUD bottomed at 75¢ … Read more
Sunday 10 December Interest rates No change to the view that global bonds remain in their long term bull markets. Commodities Crude oil marked time during the week within a fairly tight little consolidation zone of five weeks standing. So no change in positive view. After hitting $71, iron ore pulled back to $68 right … Read more
Delay in publishing Sorry about the delay in publishing this article. It was due to an IT problem. Sunday 3 December Interest rates The long term bull market in global bond prices remains intact. Commodities Crude oil marked time this week within its bull market. I wrote previously that my target is around $80. What … Read more
Sunday 26 November Interest rates Prices for bonds issued by governments of the major economies rose a tad during the week, so we remain in the long term bull market. Commodities Both oil and iron ore rose this week, in keeping with my positive views, which are that oil could increase to the $80-100 range … Read more
Saturday 18 November Interest rates Minor movements this week, so no changes in trend and no change to my view that we remain in the long term bull market for government bonds. Commodities Oil retreated a dollar or so this week but remains in its bull market. Iron ore’s bounce paused this week but it … Read more
Sunday 12 November I have run out of time this weekend to do all my usual stuff, so have had cut it short. Apologies. Interest rates No change to view. The long term bull market in major bond prices remains intact. Commodities Crude oil did very well last week, in line with my view that … Read more
Saturday 4 November Commodities WTI ($55.63) this week joined Brent ($62.07) in breaking through resistance, so the new bull market in oil is now confirmed. Short term target for Brent remains in excess of $80. Iron ore slipped almost $1 to just under $60 this week and in doing so has tentatively broken an uptrend … Read more
Sunday 29 October Commodities Oil prices have at last broken through resistance at $59.40 (basis Brent) to finish at $60.44. Hugely important. Near term target over $80. WTI prices have not yet broken through their resistance at $54.50 but presumably will do so. Iron ore’s bounce continues. Short term target over $70. Base metals continue … Read more
Saturday 21 October Interest rates No change to my view. Commodities The picture hasn’t changed. Oil looks positive but needs to clear $60 to confirm its bull market, iron ore is ready to rally further, and base metals remain in their bull markets. Hard currencies Gold fell $24 during the week, to $1,280. Although it … Read more
Sunday 8 October Interest rates There was a further fall in Treasuries during the week but the long term uptrend still appears intact. Again, the trend for Bunds is less clear, while Gilts may have breached key support. Commodities Oil has retreated from the level of its January high, reinforcing it as a level of … Read more
Saturday 29 September Interest rates Their prices fell a little, and their yields rose, but Treasuries remain in their long term bull markets. However, gilts are now forming a lower low after having completed a double top in June and in early September, so may have further to fall. It is too early to call … Read more
Sunday 24 September Commodities WTI has now joined Brent in breaking its short term downtrend. A couple of dollars more and they come up against resistance relating to their 2016 highs, being $54.50 for WTI and $59.50 for Brent. If these levels were to be breached it would be extraordinarily bullish. Initial targets would be … Read more
Saturday 16 September Commodities I have turned neutral on oil because a strong rise in Brent to over $55 broke through a short term downtrend. However there is strong resistance at $58-59 dating back to the January high. WTI is also showing signs of breaking through its short term downtrend. Iron ore retreated a little … Read more
Saturday 9 September Commodities Again, you will find commentary on gold under the Hard Currencies heading. Oil is still struggling, as expected. Iron ore pulled back this week, finishing at $74. Until proven otherwise I will assume the bull market is still in place. Most of the base metals look fine, but lead still hasn’t … Read more