Saturday 30 June Interest rates US government bond prices increased during the week, leaving them even further away from confirming their bear market. In fact, if they rise much further they would be challenging the downtrend line drawn from the 2016 top. The same thing goes for Gilts albeit in their case resistance is in … Read more
Saturday 23 June Interest rates US government bond prices are still stuck in consolidation zones above support, and if the latter gives way then the new bear market in bonds will be confirmed. The same can be said for UK and Australian government bonds. But Euro bond prices are continuing to flirt with the idea … Read more
Sunday 17 June Interest rates No change to the view, as government bond price movements were minor. For example at some 143 pts the US Treasury bond is still trading above support of around 140-141 pts. Fiat currencies The USD Index rose to the top of its recent trading range during the week but did … Read more
Saturday 9 June Interest rates US government bond prices retreated a little but they remain above support. To repeat, until that support breaks down and yields break convincingly above 3.2%, we cannot be sure that the great bull market for bonds is over. But I am reasonably confident that the break will occur in due … Read more
Saturday 2 June Interest rates US government bond prices rallied further during the week and at one stage yields fell under 3% to match the low reached in April. Germany’s bond prices jumped out of a two year consolidation zone, which I had thought would be a top formation, to a new record high, albeit … Read more
Saturday 26 May Interest rates Well, US bond prices rallied strongly during the week, so the tentative break of support did not carry through. In other words, it was a “false breakdown”. So I have changed my mind – any substantial fall has been deferred. Eurobunds have also rallied strongly – to such an extent … Read more
Saturday 19 May Interest rates On Tuesday the US Treasury Bond broke through key support, so as far as I am concerned the new bear market has been confirmed. The corollary was that bond yields jumped above resistance at 3.22% albeit the week finished at 3.21%. So the next few months could see quite a rapid … Read more
Saturday 12 May Interest rates No change. I still believe the next major movement in bond prices will be down. Fiat currencies As I expected the USD Index essentially marked time during the week and finished up slightly lower, having come up against resistance in the previous week. This set the tone for the rest … Read more
Saturday 5 May Interest rates US treasuries have continued their little rally off that support I mentioned previously, which on a yield basis is at 3.22% for the 30 year bonds. While the strength may continue for some time yet, that support is likely to give way eventually, confirming the bear market. Fiat currencies The … Read more
Saturday 28 April Bond markets During the week US Treasury prices fell to, then bounced from, the strong support at 141.5 now tested four times since November 2016. I continue to believe that this support will fail in coming weeks, thus confirming the great bond bear market. Naturally, other government bond markets are exhibiting similar … Read more
Saturday 21 April Interest rates A fall in global bond prices occurred last week and sets them up for another test of support. For the US Treasuries series that I follow, which is currently priced at 143.09, that support is at around 141.30. Should that fail, with a fall to say 140, watch out below! … Read more
Sunday 15 April Interest rates We are still in the bounce phase for bond prices, with only minor movement during the week. Fiat currencies Little movement in the fiats. The AUD rose to a little over 78¢ on Friday before retreating to 77.66¢ but has not yet broken its short term downtrend. My feeling is … Read more
Sunday 8 April Interest rates We are still “in the bounce” in government bond prices, which could have some way to run. Fiat currencies The USD Index at about 90.1 pts is in the 11th week of a consolidation pattern just above its long term uptrend. But it is also constrained on the upside by … Read more
Sunday 1 April Interest rates The rally in US government bond prices continued last week, with the yield on the 30 year T-bonds falling 0.104% to 2.972%. They had peaked at just over 3.2% in early February, before the current stock market correction commenced. Conceivably the yields could fall to as low as 2.85% in … Read more
Sunday 25 March Interest rates Government bond prices rose a touch more during the week, thus continuing the trend of recent weeks. I still believe we have seen the top and that this is just a pause in the longer term downtrend, but it could continue for a while. Fiat currencies The USD Index fell … Read more
Interest rates Government bond prices rallied further during the week, reinforcing the recent low as important support. I remain of the view that this support will give way in due course. Fiat currencies The various currencies generally remain becalmed within their consolidation zones. That said, the USD Index rose a touch and the AUD fell … Read more
Sunday 11 March Interest rates Bond prices scarcely moved during the week so there is no change to my view. Fiat currencies Ditto for fiats, really. The USD Index at around 90 pts is holding above the support from an uptrend line dating from 2011 but to me, it seems likely that this level will fail … Read more
Sunday 4 March Interest rates As I thought they might, the bond markets rallied last week, bouncing off support. Hard to say how much further they could rally, possibly a few more basis points. Eventually the downtrend should resume. Fiat currencies The USD Index rallied a little last week, then pulled back into its consolidation … Read more
Saturday 24 February Interest rates US treasuries have now fallen to the support level afforded by the 2017 low, so there is some potential for a bounce. European bonds have already started to do so. Fiat currencies The USD Index is still hovering just above the uptrend line from the 2011 low, so the AUD … Read more
Sunday 18 February Interest rates US government bond prices steadied last week, pausing in their declines. They are quite close to the 2017 lows so may mark time for a while longer, or even recover a bit, but the long term trend is definitely down. Fiat currencies The USD fell last week but did not … Read more
Sunday 11 February Interest rates There is absolutely no doubt about it now. The great bull market in government bonds is over. So, how quickly could the whole thing unravel? Slowly, I think. The yield on the US 30 year bond is currently 3.136%. There will be some resistance at the 3.2% level dating from … Read more
Sunday 4 February I was out of the office most of the weekend so have cut this commentary short. Interest rates The weakness in major bond prices intensified last week, further clarifying the picture. I can state with more certainty that we have seen the top of the almighty bull market. Some confirmations are still … Read more
Saturday 20 January Interest rates I wrote last week that the long term uptrend in US government bonds was still intact, just, but that another week or two like that and it would be a different story. A week on, bond prices have fallen again, and crucial support at 149.1 was broken intraday on Friday … Read more
Saturday 13 January Interest rates Bond prices fell during the week. US Treasuries fell close to their long term uptrend line but remain above it, so are arguably still in long term uptrend, just. Much the same picture for Eurobunds and Gilts, and for Australian 10 year bonds come to that. But another week or … Read more
Sunday 7 January Interest rates The long term bull market in global bond prices remains intact. Fiat currencies The AUD has strengthened further against the USD within its long term bull market. Currently at 78.6¢, in my opinion it will test the Sep 2017 high of 81.24¢ within the next month or two. If that … Read more
Saturday 30 December Interest rates Government bond prices generally rose during the week, so they remain in their long term bull markets. Fiat currencies I said a week ago that the AUD may have bottomed against the USD and that proved correct, with the AUD rising sharply to over 78¢ this week. I would think … Read more
Saturday 23 December Interest rates Bonds fell a little during the week, but the long term bull market remains intact. Fiat currencies There were no movement during the week that changed the outlook for any of the currencies. The AUD rallied further during the week against the USD and is now 77.15¢, reinforcing my view … Read more
Sunday 17 December Interest rates Long term bond prices generally rose last week so there is no change to my view that the long term bull market remains in place. Fiat currencies Well, the little Aussie battler DID bounce against the USD, to the 76-77¢ range, and it suggests that the AUD bottomed at 75¢ … Read more
Sunday 10 December Interest rates No change to the view that global bonds remain in their long term bull markets. Commodities Crude oil marked time during the week within a fairly tight little consolidation zone of five weeks standing. So no change in positive view. After hitting $71, iron ore pulled back to $68 right … Read more
Delay in publishing Sorry about the delay in publishing this article. It was due to an IT problem. Sunday 3 December Interest rates The long term bull market in global bond prices remains intact. Commodities Crude oil marked time this week within its bull market. I wrote previously that my target is around $80. What … Read more