Saturday 2 September Commodities Oil continues weak and probably has further to fall. Iron ore failed to achieve a new high this week but should do so shortly, if I am right. Most base metals continued their bull markets during the week, led by aluminium and copper. The laggard is lead which has not yet … Read more
Saturday 26 August Commodities At this point gold has still failed to break through that crucial level of resistance at $1310. That is not to say it will not happen. We will just have to wait and see. The strength in base metals has continued and so I continue to believe the bull market has … Read more
Saturday 19 August Commodities Gold’s has added some $80 since early July and on Friday it finally peaked at $1,307, the same level as the peaks achieved in April and June, before retreating to close at $1,292. The downtrend line extended from the 2011 and 2012 highs comes into play at the exact same level. … Read more
Saturday 12 August Commodities Gold at $1,294 is right on resistance. I have been short to medium term bearish on gold for a while now but any further significant strength will force me to change my mind. Aluminium has now joined copper in confirming a bull market and I presume the other base metals won’t … Read more
Saturday 5 August Commodities No change on the view of gold. It is in the upper area of a narrowing wedge currently within $1180 and $1280, and more likely to fall than rise. Base metals are being led by copper which has confirmed a new bull market. The other base metals are yet to make new … Read more
Commodities During the week the gold price did not fall further as I had thought it might. Instead, it increased $14 and is now sitting at $1275 and close to the downtrend line extended from the 2011 peak of $1985. I would remain cautious unless that downtrend is breached Copper has clearly confirmed a new … Read more
Saturday 22 July Commodities No change to views, which is that in the medium term gold and oil are going lower, iron ore will rally further (perhaps to over $80) and base metals are less clear – copper looks best though. Interest rates Bonds remain in long term bull markets. Currencies the high I commented … Read more
Saturday 15 July Commodities If you have been reading this each week, there is no need to regurgitate my view each time. You know it by now, and nothing changed this week. Interest rates Likewise Currencies An important move in the AUD/USD rate occurred this week with the AUD soaring by over 1¢ to 78.3¢. … Read more
Sunday 9 July Commodities Gold fell $26 to $1215 during the week and I believe could fall another $40-50 before it gets to some level of support. Base metals are harder to read but I would think they could weaken more. WTI oil is continuing in its short term downtrend. It could fall below $40 … Read more
Sunday 2 July Commodities No change to the view on gold, which is that it remains in long term downtrend and that having finished a medium term uptrend. is about to decline again by some tens of dollars. Copper is holding up well but generally the base metals look as if they have further to … Read more
Saturday 24 June Commodities Gold hardly moved during the week and my view is unchanged. That is, the next significant move is likely to be down, within long term converging support and resistance lines that are forming the apex of a triangle. Base metals probably have further to fall, and that includes zinc which rose … Read more
Saturday 17 June Commodities The long term view is that gold at $1,256 remains in a tightening consolidation zone as it slowly draws closer to the apex of a triangle bounded by the uptrend line from the 2002 low of $492 and the downtrend line from the 2011 top of $1,980. These lines are currently … Read more
Sunday 11 June Commodities Gold finished down $9 on the week within its consolidation zone and is still not indicating which way it will jump. Base metals look as if they could decline further. Crude oil looks set for further falls. Iron ore ($54.80 down $2.20) fell further in its short term bear market with … Read more
Saturday 3 June Commodities Gold ($1280) is still stuck in its trading range. Most likely the next significant move will be down. Base metals are mixed. Copper looks best, lead and zinc probably have further to fall, and nickel has retraced almost all of its 2016 gains and is not far off testing the low. … Read more
Trading portfolio The portfolio finished unchanged steady today. A 6% fall in EOS was offset by a number of gains, especially by CPH up 20%. Over the week the portfolio fell almost 1%, leaving the YTD return at minus 2%. Turning to the individual chart patterns most stocks look OK but if anything EOS at $2.92 looks … Read more
Sunday 28 May Commodities Gold remains in limbo. Still think the next significant move will be down. Same for base metals, oil and iron ore. Interest rates Bond prices generally rose during the week so no change to view. Currencies No change to my new view, that the US$ index is going to fall further … Read more
Saturday 20 May Commodities Gold now $1254 jumped $21 during the week, coinciding with the hatchet job on Trump by his increasingly frantic political foes but it means nothing in the overall scheme of things. The next significant move will be down, not up. It looks like base metals, especially lead and zinc, have a way … Read more
Saturday 13 May Commodities None of my views on commodities has changed over the week. Gold still looks like weakening by up to $100 in coming weeks. Crude rallied but its downtrend will resume in earnest in coming weeks. Iron ore is cactus. Interest rates No change Currencies All is continuing as per last week’s … Read more
Saturday 6 May Commodities Gold at $1,227 fell $41 this week but not sufficiently to change the big picture. Any further weakness, though, would suggest it could fall heavily in the short term, with support at $1,170-1,180. The picture for base metals in not clear, especially copper, but I think most could fall further in the short … Read more
Sunday 30 April Commodities Gold ($1,268) remains in limbo above the long term uptrend and the medium term downtrend. The chart picture for base metals is not clear but on balance is positive. Oil (Brent $47.05) remains in consolidation. To turn bullish would require a move to $53-54. Iron ore would appear to have cut its … Read more
Sunday 23 April Commodities and interest rates Unfortunately an IT problem has prevented me from using the program I use to view the commodity and interest rate charts so I cannot provide any comment. Being the weekend I have to wait until tomorrow to get a fix. I will update you then. Currencies The USD … Read more
Saturday 15 April Commodities Gold rose $31 last week to a new rally high of $1,289 and is now within $20 of resistance stemming from a downtrend line drawn across the peaks of 2011, 2012 and 2016. Base metals were also weaker but generally remain in their consolidation patterns within what I am calling their … Read more
Saturday 8 April Commodities Gold ($1257) has pushed marginally higher in what I see as its counter-trend rally. Most base metals continued their consolidations within what are hopefully their bull markets. Oil (WTI $52.20) looks like it is going to test the previous high of $54-55, within what now seems to be an ascending wedge … Read more
Saturday 1 April Commodities Little change to views expressed previously on gold and base metals. WTI oil found support at around $48.50 and bounced a couple of dollars. The rally could extend to the previous high of around $55. I am undecided on the longer term picture. If oil breaks above that resistance it would be … Read more
Sunday 26 March Commodities Gold rallied $18 to about $1,249 during the week. The overall picture remains that the move, since bottoming at $1,127 in December, is most likely to be a bear market rally. Most base metals continue to consolidate after their initial moves upwards some months earlier. The picture for nickel is less clear … Read more
Sunday 19 March Commodities No change to my view on any of the commodities. That includes iron ore, with the rally last week keeping it in that fast moving short term uptrend. Interest rates No change in view on currencies either. Currencies Currencies consolidated last week after the USD’s steep fall during the previous week. So my … Read more
Sunday 12 March Commodities Gold fell sharply last week, down $25 to $1201, which is about halfway between resistance, being a line drawn through the highs of 2011, 2012 and 2016, and support, a line drawn from the 2001 low of under $500 and the 2015 low of about $1060. Until it breaches either one … Read more
Saturday 4 March Commodities The gold price at $1227 fell $31 during the week but the short term uptrend (which I am classifying as a bear market rally) remains intact. As I said last week, the price could rise to as much as $1300 in the rally before failing, but that it not to say … Read more
Saturday 24 February Commodities Gold rose about $19 to a new rally high of $1258. I am still treating it as a bear market rally, which could extend to a little over $1300 before it finishes. The outlook for most base metals remain positive in the medium term. Again, tin could be the exception. Oil continues … Read more
Saturday 18 February Commodities No change to the cautious view on gold. Copper hit a new rally high on the news from Escondida then pulled back to support. It looks bullish short term and long term, as do all the other base metals with the possible exception of tin. Oil is still dithering around just above … Read more