Sunday 26 November Interest rates Prices for bonds issued by governments of the major economies rose a tad during the week, so we remain in the long term bull market. Commodities Both oil and iron ore rose this week, in keeping with my positive views, which are that oil could increase to the $80-100 range … Read more
Saturday 18 November Interest rates Minor movements this week, so no changes in trend and no change to my view that we remain in the long term bull market for government bonds. Commodities Oil retreated a dollar or so this week but remains in its bull market. Iron ore’s bounce paused this week but it … Read more
Sunday 12 November I have run out of time this weekend to do all my usual stuff, so have had cut it short. Apologies. Interest rates No change to view. The long term bull market in major bond prices remains intact. Commodities Crude oil did very well last week, in line with my view that … Read more
Saturday 4 November Commodities WTI ($55.63) this week joined Brent ($62.07) in breaking through resistance, so the new bull market in oil is now confirmed. Short term target for Brent remains in excess of $80. Iron ore slipped almost $1 to just under $60 this week and in doing so has tentatively broken an uptrend … Read more
Sunday 29 October Commodities Oil prices have at last broken through resistance at $59.40 (basis Brent) to finish at $60.44. Hugely important. Near term target over $80. WTI prices have not yet broken through their resistance at $54.50 but presumably will do so. Iron ore’s bounce continues. Short term target over $70. Base metals continue … Read more
Saturday 21 October Interest rates No change to my view. Commodities The picture hasn’t changed. Oil looks positive but needs to clear $60 to confirm its bull market, iron ore is ready to rally further, and base metals remain in their bull markets. Hard currencies Gold fell $24 during the week, to $1,280. Although it … Read more
Sunday 8 October Interest rates There was a further fall in Treasuries during the week but the long term uptrend still appears intact. Again, the trend for Bunds is less clear, while Gilts may have breached key support. Commodities Oil has retreated from the level of its January high, reinforcing it as a level of … Read more
Saturday 29 September Interest rates Their prices fell a little, and their yields rose, but Treasuries remain in their long term bull markets. However, gilts are now forming a lower low after having completed a double top in June and in early September, so may have further to fall. It is too early to call … Read more
Sunday 24 September Commodities WTI has now joined Brent in breaking its short term downtrend. A couple of dollars more and they come up against resistance relating to their 2016 highs, being $54.50 for WTI and $59.50 for Brent. If these levels were to be breached it would be extraordinarily bullish. Initial targets would be … Read more
Saturday 16 September Commodities I have turned neutral on oil because a strong rise in Brent to over $55 broke through a short term downtrend. However there is strong resistance at $58-59 dating back to the January high. WTI is also showing signs of breaking through its short term downtrend. Iron ore retreated a little … Read more
Saturday 9 September Commodities Again, you will find commentary on gold under the Hard Currencies heading. Oil is still struggling, as expected. Iron ore pulled back this week, finishing at $74. Until proven otherwise I will assume the bull market is still in place. Most of the base metals look fine, but lead still hasn’t … Read more
Saturday 2 September Commodities Oil continues weak and probably has further to fall. Iron ore failed to achieve a new high this week but should do so shortly, if I am right. Most base metals continued their bull markets during the week, led by aluminium and copper. The laggard is lead which has not yet … Read more
Saturday 26 August Commodities At this point gold has still failed to break through that crucial level of resistance at $1310. That is not to say it will not happen. We will just have to wait and see. The strength in base metals has continued and so I continue to believe the bull market has … Read more
Saturday 19 August Commodities Gold’s has added some $80 since early July and on Friday it finally peaked at $1,307, the same level as the peaks achieved in April and June, before retreating to close at $1,292. The downtrend line extended from the 2011 and 2012 highs comes into play at the exact same level. … Read more
Saturday 12 August Commodities Gold at $1,294 is right on resistance. I have been short to medium term bearish on gold for a while now but any further significant strength will force me to change my mind. Aluminium has now joined copper in confirming a bull market and I presume the other base metals won’t … Read more
Saturday 5 August Commodities No change on the view of gold. It is in the upper area of a narrowing wedge currently within $1180 and $1280, and more likely to fall than rise. Base metals are being led by copper which has confirmed a new bull market. The other base metals are yet to make new … Read more
Commodities During the week the gold price did not fall further as I had thought it might. Instead, it increased $14 and is now sitting at $1275 and close to the downtrend line extended from the 2011 peak of $1985. I would remain cautious unless that downtrend is breached Copper has clearly confirmed a new … Read more
Saturday 22 July Commodities No change to views, which is that in the medium term gold and oil are going lower, iron ore will rally further (perhaps to over $80) and base metals are less clear – copper looks best though. Interest rates Bonds remain in long term bull markets. Currencies the high I commented … Read more
Saturday 15 July Commodities If you have been reading this each week, there is no need to regurgitate my view each time. You know it by now, and nothing changed this week. Interest rates Likewise Currencies An important move in the AUD/USD rate occurred this week with the AUD soaring by over 1¢ to 78.3¢. … Read more
Sunday 9 July Commodities Gold fell $26 to $1215 during the week and I believe could fall another $40-50 before it gets to some level of support. Base metals are harder to read but I would think they could weaken more. WTI oil is continuing in its short term downtrend. It could fall below $40 … Read more
Sunday 2 July Commodities No change to the view on gold, which is that it remains in long term downtrend and that having finished a medium term uptrend. is about to decline again by some tens of dollars. Copper is holding up well but generally the base metals look as if they have further to … Read more
Saturday 24 June Commodities Gold hardly moved during the week and my view is unchanged. That is, the next significant move is likely to be down, within long term converging support and resistance lines that are forming the apex of a triangle. Base metals probably have further to fall, and that includes zinc which rose … Read more
Saturday 17 June Commodities The long term view is that gold at $1,256 remains in a tightening consolidation zone as it slowly draws closer to the apex of a triangle bounded by the uptrend line from the 2002 low of $492 and the downtrend line from the 2011 top of $1,980. These lines are currently … Read more
Sunday 11 June Commodities Gold finished down $9 on the week within its consolidation zone and is still not indicating which way it will jump. Base metals look as if they could decline further. Crude oil looks set for further falls. Iron ore ($54.80 down $2.20) fell further in its short term bear market with … Read more
Saturday 3 June Commodities Gold ($1280) is still stuck in its trading range. Most likely the next significant move will be down. Base metals are mixed. Copper looks best, lead and zinc probably have further to fall, and nickel has retraced almost all of its 2016 gains and is not far off testing the low. … Read more
Trading portfolio The portfolio finished unchanged steady today. A 6% fall in EOS was offset by a number of gains, especially by CPH up 20%. Over the week the portfolio fell almost 1%, leaving the YTD return at minus 2%. Turning to the individual chart patterns most stocks look OK but if anything EOS at $2.92 looks … Read more
Sunday 28 May Commodities Gold remains in limbo. Still think the next significant move will be down. Same for base metals, oil and iron ore. Interest rates Bond prices generally rose during the week so no change to view. Currencies No change to my new view, that the US$ index is going to fall further … Read more
Saturday 20 May Commodities Gold now $1254 jumped $21 during the week, coinciding with the hatchet job on Trump by his increasingly frantic political foes but it means nothing in the overall scheme of things. The next significant move will be down, not up. It looks like base metals, especially lead and zinc, have a way … Read more
Saturday 13 May Commodities None of my views on commodities has changed over the week. Gold still looks like weakening by up to $100 in coming weeks. Crude rallied but its downtrend will resume in earnest in coming weeks. Iron ore is cactus. Interest rates No change Currencies All is continuing as per last week’s … Read more
Saturday 6 May Commodities Gold at $1,227 fell $41 this week but not sufficiently to change the big picture. Any further weakness, though, would suggest it could fall heavily in the short term, with support at $1,170-1,180. The picture for base metals in not clear, especially copper, but I think most could fall further in the short … Read more