Sunday 30 April Commodities Gold ($1,268) remains in limbo above the long term uptrend and the medium term downtrend. The chart picture for base metals is not clear but on balance is positive. Oil (Brent $47.05) remains in consolidation. To turn bullish would require a move to $53-54. Iron ore would appear to have cut its … Read more
Sunday 23 April Commodities and interest rates Unfortunately an IT problem has prevented me from using the program I use to view the commodity and interest rate charts so I cannot provide any comment. Being the weekend I have to wait until tomorrow to get a fix. I will update you then. Currencies The USD … Read more
Saturday 15 April Commodities Gold rose $31 last week to a new rally high of $1,289 and is now within $20 of resistance stemming from a downtrend line drawn across the peaks of 2011, 2012 and 2016. Base metals were also weaker but generally remain in their consolidation patterns within what I am calling their … Read more
Saturday 8 April Commodities Gold ($1257) has pushed marginally higher in what I see as its counter-trend rally. Most base metals continued their consolidations within what are hopefully their bull markets. Oil (WTI $52.20) looks like it is going to test the previous high of $54-55, within what now seems to be an ascending wedge … Read more
Saturday 1 April Commodities Little change to views expressed previously on gold and base metals. WTI oil found support at around $48.50 and bounced a couple of dollars. The rally could extend to the previous high of around $55. I am undecided on the longer term picture. If oil breaks above that resistance it would be … Read more
Sunday 26 March Commodities Gold rallied $18 to about $1,249 during the week. The overall picture remains that the move, since bottoming at $1,127 in December, is most likely to be a bear market rally. Most base metals continue to consolidate after their initial moves upwards some months earlier. The picture for nickel is less clear … Read more
Sunday 19 March Commodities No change to my view on any of the commodities. That includes iron ore, with the rally last week keeping it in that fast moving short term uptrend. Interest rates No change in view on currencies either. Currencies Currencies consolidated last week after the USD’s steep fall during the previous week. So my … Read more
Sunday 12 March Commodities Gold fell sharply last week, down $25 to $1201, which is about halfway between resistance, being a line drawn through the highs of 2011, 2012 and 2016, and support, a line drawn from the 2001 low of under $500 and the 2015 low of about $1060. Until it breaches either one … Read more
Saturday 4 March Commodities The gold price at $1227 fell $31 during the week but the short term uptrend (which I am classifying as a bear market rally) remains intact. As I said last week, the price could rise to as much as $1300 in the rally before failing, but that it not to say … Read more
Saturday 24 February Commodities Gold rose about $19 to a new rally high of $1258. I am still treating it as a bear market rally, which could extend to a little over $1300 before it finishes. The outlook for most base metals remain positive in the medium term. Again, tin could be the exception. Oil continues … Read more
Saturday 18 February Commodities No change to the cautious view on gold. Copper hit a new rally high on the news from Escondida then pulled back to support. It looks bullish short term and long term, as do all the other base metals with the possible exception of tin. Oil is still dithering around just above … Read more
Saturday 11 February Commodities Gold made another high in what I am calling its bear market rally. Base metals remain positive except tin has broken its uptrend. Oil and iron ore are both in bull markets but whereas oil remains becalmed, iron ore has made a new high. Looking good. Interest rates No change in … Read more
Sunday 5 February Commodities Gold rise a little further last week, to $1,221. My view remains that it is a bear market rally which could take it as high as $1,300 before the downtrend resumes. It would take a move exceeding the 2016 peak of $1,390 to change my mind. Most base metals continue in their … Read more
Saturday 28 January 2017 Commodities No change to my view on commodities. If I was asked to pick my favourite commodity I would have to say iron ore. Not so much because it will perform the best, more that the potential for a significant move upwards is clearer on the charts for iron ore than … Read more
Saturday 21 January Commodities This week saw another small rise in gold within its current rally, which I am treating as a bear market rally unless proven otherwise. Base metals remain in their consolidation zones, except for aluminium which has risen to a new rally high, and I still think oil and iron ore can … Read more
Saturday 14 January Commodities Gold extended its rally by $22 this week, to $1196. To me, the most likely scenario is for gold to continue its rally to about $1250 before failing and resuming its medium-term bear market. The price would need to take out the July 2016 high of about $1390 before the alternative … Read more
Saturday 7 January 2017 Commodities Gold rose another $22 during the week, to $1173, confirming the recent low of $1127 as a significant one. How far can it rally? Perhaps another $50-100. But at this stage it would be prudent to regard it as a rally within a bear market. It would have to take out the July … Read more
Friday 6 January 2017 Once again, there were no transactions in the trading portfolio this week, except that some cash was removed to fund an acquisition within the long term portfolio (yes, I do have a long term portfolio in addition to the short term one). Essentially, I have not been able to uncover any … Read more
Saturday 31 December Commodities Gold has bounced off that support I mentioned last week. Not by very much but a bounce nonetheless. So there is potential for the rally to continue. Base metals have fallen again, copper less than lead and nickel. I still believe a new bull market has commenced but that is a comment … Read more
Saturday 24 December Commodities Gold at $1133 (NY) is testing support derived from the long term uptrend line, and could stage a rally from here. Otherwise it will fall further to test the 2015 low at around $1065. Copper, lead, zinc and nickel had a sharp correction last week and this marks the top for the … Read more
Saturday 17 December Commodities Gold fell heavily during the week and so has been behaving as I predicted. Its low was $1124 then bounced to $1137. There is a chance that the low in the week might also be THE low, as it coincided with where I have drawn the uptrend line from the 2002 … Read more
Sunday 11 December Commodities No change to my bearish view on gold, whether or not it rallies in the short term. Oil looks poised for an explosive move upwards but WTI first needs to clear resistance at between $51 and $52, a rise of only a dollar or so from current levels. It is interesting … Read more
Sunday 4 December Commodities Another week, another fall in gold. Now at $1178, the next target is around $1130 which is where the long term uptrend line dating from 2001 would come through. It is this long term uptrend that I thought would hold, from which point a new uptrend could eventuate to take gold to … Read more
Saturday 26 November Commodities Gold weakened another $30 last week, in line with my expectations. There is now potential for a bounce, given that at $1198 it has now fallen $206 from the top, but in the medium term (in the next one or two months) my target is lower. Previously I had a target … Read more
Sunday 20 November Commodities Gold fell another $15 last week, to $1208, and remains on track to hit my $1100-1200 target range. Beyond that, I am still hoping for the bull market in gold to resume. Base metals generally pulled back a little but I continue to believe a new bull market has commenced. Iron ore also … Read more
Sunday 13 November Commodities Commodities have been Trumped this week. On Friday gold fell sharply to $1,224, right on cue, taking the week’s loss to $80. To me, it confirms the commencement of a significant move down. In my update on Thursday I said this could be to the $1100-1200 range, and that is still … Read more
Thursday 10 November There was so much noise and so much volatility around yesterday’s election in which Trump triumphed, that I thought I should set the record straight.My own personal view has been and remains that Trump will be good for America and therefore for the world. Basically, those who thought Trump would be a … Read more
Sunday 6 November Commodities Gold and silver rallied last week but I don’t think it will last. Base metals look good though, with copper and zinc now joining sector leaders tin and lead. Currencies Last week the US dollar fell against the other major currencies but remains in long term uptrend. Meanwhile the AUD remains … Read more
Sunday 30 October Commodities I was wrong on iron ore. It had broken its short term uptrend line a few weeks ago and so I thought the next significant move would be down. But in fact it rallied sharply to $63 last week and took out the previous high. So I now think the rise … Read more
Sunday 23 October Commodities Gold’s picture is unchanged, with further falls to come in coming weeks before the big move up. Base metals outlook is also unchanged, with copper still in its little triangle. Lead looks best. Oil is still trying to free itself from resistance at around current levels, which, if it succeeds, means … Read more