Saturday 11 February Commodities Gold made another high in what I am calling its bear market rally. Base metals remain positive except tin has broken its uptrend. Oil and iron ore are both in bull markets but whereas oil remains becalmed, iron ore has made a new high. Looking good. Interest rates No change in … Read more
Sunday 5 February Commodities Gold rise a little further last week, to $1,221. My view remains that it is a bear market rally which could take it as high as $1,300 before the downtrend resumes. It would take a move exceeding the 2016 peak of $1,390 to change my mind. Most base metals continue in their … Read more
Saturday 28 January 2017 Commodities No change to my view on commodities. If I was asked to pick my favourite commodity I would have to say iron ore. Not so much because it will perform the best, more that the potential for a significant move upwards is clearer on the charts for iron ore than … Read more
Saturday 21 January Commodities This week saw another small rise in gold within its current rally, which I am treating as a bear market rally unless proven otherwise. Base metals remain in their consolidation zones, except for aluminium which has risen to a new rally high, and I still think oil and iron ore can … Read more
Saturday 14 January Commodities Gold extended its rally by $22 this week, to $1196. To me, the most likely scenario is for gold to continue its rally to about $1250 before failing and resuming its medium-term bear market. The price would need to take out the July 2016 high of about $1390 before the alternative … Read more
Saturday 7 January 2017 Commodities Gold rose another $22 during the week, to $1173, confirming the recent low of $1127 as a significant one. How far can it rally? Perhaps another $50-100. But at this stage it would be prudent to regard it as a rally within a bear market. It would have to take out the July … Read more
Friday 6 January 2017 Once again, there were no transactions in the trading portfolio this week, except that some cash was removed to fund an acquisition within the long term portfolio (yes, I do have a long term portfolio in addition to the short term one). Essentially, I have not been able to uncover any … Read more
Saturday 31 December Commodities Gold has bounced off that support I mentioned last week. Not by very much but a bounce nonetheless. So there is potential for the rally to continue. Base metals have fallen again, copper less than lead and nickel. I still believe a new bull market has commenced but that is a comment … Read more
Saturday 24 December Commodities Gold at $1133 (NY) is testing support derived from the long term uptrend line, and could stage a rally from here. Otherwise it will fall further to test the 2015 low at around $1065. Copper, lead, zinc and nickel had a sharp correction last week and this marks the top for the … Read more
Saturday 17 December Commodities Gold fell heavily during the week and so has been behaving as I predicted. Its low was $1124 then bounced to $1137. There is a chance that the low in the week might also be THE low, as it coincided with where I have drawn the uptrend line from the 2002 … Read more
Sunday 11 December Commodities No change to my bearish view on gold, whether or not it rallies in the short term. Oil looks poised for an explosive move upwards but WTI first needs to clear resistance at between $51 and $52, a rise of only a dollar or so from current levels. It is interesting … Read more
Sunday 4 December Commodities Another week, another fall in gold. Now at $1178, the next target is around $1130 which is where the long term uptrend line dating from 2001 would come through. It is this long term uptrend that I thought would hold, from which point a new uptrend could eventuate to take gold to … Read more
Saturday 26 November Commodities Gold weakened another $30 last week, in line with my expectations. There is now potential for a bounce, given that at $1198 it has now fallen $206 from the top, but in the medium term (in the next one or two months) my target is lower. Previously I had a target … Read more
Sunday 20 November Commodities Gold fell another $15 last week, to $1208, and remains on track to hit my $1100-1200 target range. Beyond that, I am still hoping for the bull market in gold to resume. Base metals generally pulled back a little but I continue to believe a new bull market has commenced. Iron ore also … Read more
Sunday 13 November Commodities Commodities have been Trumped this week. On Friday gold fell sharply to $1,224, right on cue, taking the week’s loss to $80. To me, it confirms the commencement of a significant move down. In my update on Thursday I said this could be to the $1100-1200 range, and that is still … Read more
Thursday 10 November There was so much noise and so much volatility around yesterday’s election in which Trump triumphed, that I thought I should set the record straight.My own personal view has been and remains that Trump will be good for America and therefore for the world. Basically, those who thought Trump would be a … Read more
Sunday 6 November Commodities Gold and silver rallied last week but I don’t think it will last. Base metals look good though, with copper and zinc now joining sector leaders tin and lead. Currencies Last week the US dollar fell against the other major currencies but remains in long term uptrend. Meanwhile the AUD remains … Read more
Sunday 30 October Commodities I was wrong on iron ore. It had broken its short term uptrend line a few weeks ago and so I thought the next significant move would be down. But in fact it rallied sharply to $63 last week and took out the previous high. So I now think the rise … Read more
Sunday 23 October Commodities Gold’s picture is unchanged, with further falls to come in coming weeks before the big move up. Base metals outlook is also unchanged, with copper still in its little triangle. Lead looks best. Oil is still trying to free itself from resistance at around current levels, which, if it succeeds, means … Read more
Sunday 9 October Commodities Well, I was dead right about the next significant move in gold being down. It fell $65 during the week to $1252/oz. While it may or may not rally a bit in the short term, I would think that in the medium term it has further to fall. First support lies … Read more
Sunday 2 October Commodities Gold remains stuck in its consolidation zone just below key resistance. I still think the next significant move will be down, before gold really takes off. Silver looks similar except there is little overhead resistance, but it could easily come back like gold before exploding upwards. Copper remains trapped in its … Read more
Sunday 25 September Commodities No change to the view on gold. The next move of significance is likely to be down $100-200. Just to put that into perspective, I should add that if the long term uptrend is not breached at that point, we could then see a move to $5,000 or more. Iron ore … Read more
Sunday 18 September Commodities Gold at $1310 is just hanging in there, poised to make a significant move. My thinking at present is that it will be down, with a target of under $1200, but that won’t be clear until the move actually commences. Any further weakness from the current price would cinch it. I should … Read more
Saturday 10 September Commodities All the noise this week did not change the picture for gold and the other commodities. Tin is the best looking base metal but most are probably going to weaken a bit in the short term. Currencies Again, some big moves yesterday but nothing to change the big picture, being that the … Read more
Saturday 3 September Commodities I covered commodities in a separate article today, so please refer to that for details. Currencies Clearest currency signals are presented by the Yen and Yuan, which remain in uptrends against the US$, while the Euro and Pound remain in consolidation mode. The all important A$ (for we Australians, anyway) is consolidating in the US74-77¢ range, … Read more
Saturday 3 September Introduction I thought I would expand my usual presentation of commodities this week, to add interest for the reader. Let me know what you think. Precious metals Gold on Friday bounced off the short-term uptrend line drawn through the December and May lows but is still constrained by the longer term downtrend line … Read more
Sunday 28 August Background Nothing new to say on commodities or stock indices. Graphite stocks With a market cap of $1.1bn Syrah Resources (SYR) is still by far the largest graphite stock, the next two largest being Magnis (MNS) at $276m and the much smaller Kibaran (KNL) at $58m. Syrah’s Balama project is fully funded and construction is underway. … Read more
Sunday 21 August Commodities No change to my view on gold. At $1,346 it is currently stuck in a consolidation zone just below a downtrend line. Lead, zinc and tin are each slap-up against downtrend lines and could fall back in coming weeks. Copper and nickel seems better placed for a continuation of their rallies. It is … Read more
Saturday 13 August Commodities Little has altered to change my views. Gold may fall back in the next couple of months, unless it can break through the resistance posed by the downtrend line drawn across the 2011 and 2012 peaks. Silver looks better than gold. Base metals are generally good, although I should mention that zinc at … Read more
Sunday 7 August Commodities Nothing new to add to last week’s commentary: there remains a question in my mind over whether gold can continue to rise or whether it will first pull back sharply; I remain relatively bullish on base metals with nickel looking best; iron ore could rally another $10 or so before pulling … Read more