Sunday 31 July Commodities I remain positive generally on precious and base metals, but there is nothing new to say. Oil (WTI $41.49) fell sharply last week, much as I expected. There is not necessarily much less on the downside, perhaps to the high 30s, but it is difficult to be sure. Iron ore ($58.80) … Read more
Saturday 23 July Commodities I am increasingly of the view that gold could continue to mark time for a bit. Indices Nothing new to say. All good. Battery stocks The major lithium plays all look to be forming tops. That includes ORE, GMM/GXY, NMT and PLS. I just think there are too many of these stocks now. It … Read more
Sunday 17 July Commodities Bother gold and silver dropped back a little over the week but there is nothing further of any note to add. I note that zinc’s strong surge has taken it within $100 of significant resistance. Tin too. It is now nickel that looks best placed for further gains in the short term. Of the bulks, … Read more
Sunday 10 July Commodities Gold (NY $1,358) rose further during the week, closer to that line of resistance I mentioned last week, which is currently at about $1,395 but declining each day. Meanwhile silver continues to lead. Base metals remain encouraging and during the week it was nickel’s turn to break free. Oil continues to gradually … Read more
Sunday 3 July Commodities Gold (Ldn $1,340, NY $1,339) rallied further during the week and is close to the downtrend line drawn through and extended from the declining tops in 2011 and 2012. The significance of this resistance will not be known until it is tested and either overcome or enforced. However, silver (Ldn $19.34) … Read more
Friday 1 July The return on the portfolio was 55% for the 12 months ended 30 June 2016, using the method I have been using up until now. It was based on cumulative dollar gains divided by the average portfolio value. However I have decided to switch to a new method of calculating returns, based on … Read more
Sunday 26 June Commodities London gold (now $1,315) is at a marginal new high within an upwards sloping consolidation zone. US gold ($1,322) has retreated from its intra-week high of $1,363 near the downtrend line extended from the 2011 and 2012 tops. Just how important that line is will be seen in due course. Silver ($18.04) presents a more … Read more
Sunday 19 June Commodities During the week London gold hit a new 2016 high of $1311, above the January 2015 high of $1296, before falling back to $1291. Is it enough to call it the start of a new bull market? Probably not, but it is encouraging. Silver (now $17.37) is also looking quite good. A … Read more
Sunday 12 June Commodities Gold continues to consolidate in a relatively tight range. Other base metals are floundering but zinc (now $2,078) continues very strong and with no real resistance until $2,350. Has iron ore (now $52.10) finished the down-leg of the right shoulder of a head and shoulders bottom formation? Just a thought. Oil (WTI now … Read more
Sunday 3 June Commodities Nothing much new to say. But sugar seems to have broken upwards. Sugar is irrelevant to the market now, but one of my stocks when I was a professional analyst used to be CSR when it was a sugar, iron ore and coal stock, and I still keep an eye out … Read more
Sunday 22 May Background All metals fell back last week. Gold remains in its short term uptrend, and most base metals (copper especially) are endeavouring to base (pun intended). WTI and Brent hit new rally highs, while iron ore ($55.70) continues to form what might be (or might not be) its right shoulder. The head and … Read more
Saturday 14 May Backdrop Nothing new this week. I remain relatively bullish on most commodities medium term. Breakouts I noted quite a few breakouts during the week. I bought two and may buy some others. They included: POP (Primary Opinion) 5.8¢, MC $15.5m. Proposing to buy Maggie Beer Products for $15m, cum capital raising of … Read more
Sunday 8 May Commodities No new earth shattering predictions to add this week. I remain relatively bullish in the short to medium term on oil, iron ore and many metals. Currencies The US dollar index has bounced off support at the bottom of its medium term consolidation zone. The Yen hit a new high against the US$ before falling … Read more
Sunday 1 May Commodities After consolidating for some weeks post its initial move from the downtrend, gold (London $1285, Comex $1290) has made a new high, albeit only tentative. So silver’s earlier move (and silver finished this week on another new high of $17.86) has now been confirmed by gold. Very bullish. In base metals, the picture is encouraging … Read more
Sunday 24 April Commodities Having tentatively broken upside from its down-channel a few weeks ago, gold ($1243) has been trading in a tight trading range. A break upwards to above $1300 (the high in January 2015) would confirm the new short term uptrend. Silver ($1.19) appears more clear cut. Definitely broke downtrend last week. Base … Read more
Sunday 17 April Commodities Gold is consolidating after its breakout from the multi-year down-channel. Silver looks as if it might break out but has not yet done so. Of the base metals, copper, zinc and tin broke short term downtrends some weeks ago (but not lead, nickel and alumiunium) but it is too early to … Read more
Sunday 10 April Background Nothing of note occurred in commodities In currencies, the Japanese Yen took a hike and broke up out of its recent trading zone, otherwise little of major significance. Most stockmarket indices remain in bear market rally mode. Stocks The big four banks and Macquarie are testing or on their way to testing their … Read more
Monday 4 April Commodities In my absence from this blog over the past two months, gold has broken its short term downtrend line but silver has not. In base metals, copper, zinc and tin have broken short term downtrend lines but lead and nickel and aluminium have not. Iron ore (currently $54) has clearly broken its downtrend but … Read more
Sunday 7 February Commodities Gold (pm fix $1,150) has rallied to the extent that it is seriously challenging its downtrend, but as always a number of interpretations can be made so the picture is not entirely clear. A move to $1,250 would clarify that we have seen the bottom. Silver (pm fix $14.91) has rallied too but … Read more
Sunday 31 January Background Again, most commodities rallied during the week but all remain in their downtrends. Bond prices continued their rally. Indices rallied during the week, with the exception of Shanghai which fell through crucial support. As far as I am concerned, until I am convinced otherwise, the world has entered a bear market. No doubt … Read more
Sunday 17 January Background Except for gold and silver, commodities continued their slide last week with new lows in copper, tin and oil. No change to my bearish view at this point. In currencies the US$ continued in its consolidation zone but the Yen looks ready to break upwards and it is the Pound, not the Euro, … Read more
Saturday 9 January Background An interesting week with major falls in most asset classes except in gold. But the rally in gold has not yet cut its downtrend, and silver hardly reacted to the turmoil at all. Base metals all sold off – copper hit a new low and tin looks like it might do so … Read more
Sunday 3 January Background Most commodities continued to consolidate within their downtrends. The only excitement was in Henry Hub gas which jumped from US$1.56 on the eve of Christmas to US$2.32 at year’s end. Still in its downtrend though. Iron ore staged a minor rally to $42.90 but is well within its downtrend. Nothing new in currencies, … Read more
Saturday 26 December Background No change to the bearish view on metals and other commodities. Currencies continue to trade in narrow consolidation zones. Global stock market indices continue bearish, in my opinion, and Australia is no exception. Australian stocks VTG () is making new highs. I just about bought these a month ago when they first broke … Read more
Saturday 19 December Background No sign of any change in downtrends for precious, noble and base metals, nor for oil, iron ore and coal. Currencies remain in consolidation zones. Stock market indices in the US and Europe continue to look very bearish to me, and also most Asian indices, but Shanghai has not (yet) broken its short … Read more
Saturday 12 December The big picture My charting system is back up and running so I can now comment on the wider picture. I didn’t really miss much in the last couple of weeks. As yet there is no change to my bearish view of metal prices. Even the standout, palladium, is going to succumb. Crude … Read more
Sunday 6 December Commodities/forex Still unavailable I’m afraid. Indices Nothing of much note to add to prior comments. Remaining very cautious. Australian stocks Nothing much new here either, and anyway I have run out of time to do a great deal. One thing is that I would rather be be selling than buying shares in … Read more
Saturday 21 November Background Gold (London fix $1,081/oz) hit a new low during the week on its way down to $1,000 or so. Silver did likewise. The collapse in base metal prices continued with new lows in copper, lead, zinc and nickel. I think there is much further to fall. I can envisage copper (currently $4,810/t) … Read more
Saturday 14 November I had a bit more time on my hands today so have quite a long post this weekend. Commodities Gold finished the week at $1081, on support from the low in July, but I don’t place much store in this holding. There is better support at around $1,000. Copper, lead and zinc hit new … Read more
Sunday 8 November Well, gold ($1,104) did not take off after all. It did not break its downtrend and remains in downtrend. Base metals are still in downtrend, as is Newcastle coal, whilst oil and iron ore are still within consolidation zones. US equity markets have had a bear market rally, which is nearing its logical conclusion. … Read more