Sunday 4 December Commodities Another week, another fall in gold. Now at $1178, the next target is around $1130 which is where the long term uptrend line dating from 2001 would come through. It is this long term uptrend that I thought would hold, from which point a new uptrend could eventuate to take gold to … Read more
Saturday 26 November Commodities Gold weakened another $30 last week, in line with my expectations. There is now potential for a bounce, given that at $1198 it has now fallen $206 from the top, but in the medium term (in the next one or two months) my target is lower. Previously I had a target … Read more
Sunday 20 November Commodities Gold fell another $15 last week, to $1208, and remains on track to hit my $1100-1200 target range. Beyond that, I am still hoping for the bull market in gold to resume. Base metals generally pulled back a little but I continue to believe a new bull market has commenced. Iron ore also … Read more
Sunday 13 November Commodities Commodities have been Trumped this week. On Friday gold fell sharply to $1,224, right on cue, taking the week’s loss to $80. To me, it confirms the commencement of a significant move down. In my update on Thursday I said this could be to the $1100-1200 range, and that is still … Read more
Thursday 10 November There was so much noise and so much volatility around yesterday’s election in which Trump triumphed, that I thought I should set the record straight.My own personal view has been and remains that Trump will be good for America and therefore for the world. Basically, those who thought Trump would be a … Read more
Sunday 6 November Commodities Gold and silver rallied last week but I don’t think it will last. Base metals look good though, with copper and zinc now joining sector leaders tin and lead. Currencies Last week the US dollar fell against the other major currencies but remains in long term uptrend. Meanwhile the AUD remains … Read more
Sunday 30 October Commodities I was wrong on iron ore. It had broken its short term uptrend line a few weeks ago and so I thought the next significant move would be down. But in fact it rallied sharply to $63 last week and took out the previous high. So I now think the rise … Read more
Sunday 23 October Commodities Gold’s picture is unchanged, with further falls to come in coming weeks before the big move up. Base metals outlook is also unchanged, with copper still in its little triangle. Lead looks best. Oil is still trying to free itself from resistance at around current levels, which, if it succeeds, means … Read more
Sunday 9 October Commodities Well, I was dead right about the next significant move in gold being down. It fell $65 during the week to $1252/oz. While it may or may not rally a bit in the short term, I would think that in the medium term it has further to fall. First support lies … Read more
Sunday 2 October Commodities Gold remains stuck in its consolidation zone just below key resistance. I still think the next significant move will be down, before gold really takes off. Silver looks similar except there is little overhead resistance, but it could easily come back like gold before exploding upwards. Copper remains trapped in its … Read more
Sunday 25 September Commodities No change to the view on gold. The next move of significance is likely to be down $100-200. Just to put that into perspective, I should add that if the long term uptrend is not breached at that point, we could then see a move to $5,000 or more. Iron ore … Read more
Sunday 18 September Commodities Gold at $1310 is just hanging in there, poised to make a significant move. My thinking at present is that it will be down, with a target of under $1200, but that won’t be clear until the move actually commences. Any further weakness from the current price would cinch it. I should … Read more
Saturday 10 September Commodities All the noise this week did not change the picture for gold and the other commodities. Tin is the best looking base metal but most are probably going to weaken a bit in the short term. Currencies Again, some big moves yesterday but nothing to change the big picture, being that the … Read more
Saturday 3 September Commodities I covered commodities in a separate article today, so please refer to that for details. Currencies Clearest currency signals are presented by the Yen and Yuan, which remain in uptrends against the US$, while the Euro and Pound remain in consolidation mode. The all important A$ (for we Australians, anyway) is consolidating in the US74-77¢ range, … Read more
Saturday 3 September Introduction I thought I would expand my usual presentation of commodities this week, to add interest for the reader. Let me know what you think. Precious metals Gold on Friday bounced off the short-term uptrend line drawn through the December and May lows but is still constrained by the longer term downtrend line … Read more
Sunday 28 August Background Nothing new to say on commodities or stock indices. Graphite stocks With a market cap of $1.1bn Syrah Resources (SYR) is still by far the largest graphite stock, the next two largest being Magnis (MNS) at $276m and the much smaller Kibaran (KNL) at $58m. Syrah’s Balama project is fully funded and construction is underway. … Read more
Sunday 21 August Commodities No change to my view on gold. At $1,346 it is currently stuck in a consolidation zone just below a downtrend line. Lead, zinc and tin are each slap-up against downtrend lines and could fall back in coming weeks. Copper and nickel seems better placed for a continuation of their rallies. It is … Read more
Saturday 13 August Commodities Little has altered to change my views. Gold may fall back in the next couple of months, unless it can break through the resistance posed by the downtrend line drawn across the 2011 and 2012 peaks. Silver looks better than gold. Base metals are generally good, although I should mention that zinc at … Read more
Sunday 7 August Commodities Nothing new to add to last week’s commentary: there remains a question in my mind over whether gold can continue to rise or whether it will first pull back sharply; I remain relatively bullish on base metals with nickel looking best; iron ore could rally another $10 or so before pulling … Read more
Sunday 31 July Commodities I remain positive generally on precious and base metals, but there is nothing new to say. Oil (WTI $41.49) fell sharply last week, much as I expected. There is not necessarily much less on the downside, perhaps to the high 30s, but it is difficult to be sure. Iron ore ($58.80) … Read more
Saturday 23 July Commodities I am increasingly of the view that gold could continue to mark time for a bit. Indices Nothing new to say. All good. Battery stocks The major lithium plays all look to be forming tops. That includes ORE, GMM/GXY, NMT and PLS. I just think there are too many of these stocks now. It … Read more
Sunday 17 July Commodities Bother gold and silver dropped back a little over the week but there is nothing further of any note to add. I note that zinc’s strong surge has taken it within $100 of significant resistance. Tin too. It is now nickel that looks best placed for further gains in the short term. Of the bulks, … Read more
Sunday 10 July Commodities Gold (NY $1,358) rose further during the week, closer to that line of resistance I mentioned last week, which is currently at about $1,395 but declining each day. Meanwhile silver continues to lead. Base metals remain encouraging and during the week it was nickel’s turn to break free. Oil continues to gradually … Read more
Sunday 3 July Commodities Gold (Ldn $1,340, NY $1,339) rallied further during the week and is close to the downtrend line drawn through and extended from the declining tops in 2011 and 2012. The significance of this resistance will not be known until it is tested and either overcome or enforced. However, silver (Ldn $19.34) … Read more
Friday 1 July The return on the portfolio was 55% for the 12 months ended 30 June 2016, using the method I have been using up until now. It was based on cumulative dollar gains divided by the average portfolio value. However I have decided to switch to a new method of calculating returns, based on … Read more
Sunday 26 June Commodities London gold (now $1,315) is at a marginal new high within an upwards sloping consolidation zone. US gold ($1,322) has retreated from its intra-week high of $1,363 near the downtrend line extended from the 2011 and 2012 tops. Just how important that line is will be seen in due course. Silver ($18.04) presents a more … Read more
Sunday 19 June Commodities During the week London gold hit a new 2016 high of $1311, above the January 2015 high of $1296, before falling back to $1291. Is it enough to call it the start of a new bull market? Probably not, but it is encouraging. Silver (now $17.37) is also looking quite good. A … Read more
Sunday 12 June Commodities Gold continues to consolidate in a relatively tight range. Other base metals are floundering but zinc (now $2,078) continues very strong and with no real resistance until $2,350. Has iron ore (now $52.10) finished the down-leg of the right shoulder of a head and shoulders bottom formation? Just a thought. Oil (WTI now … Read more
Sunday 3 June Commodities Nothing much new to say. But sugar seems to have broken upwards. Sugar is irrelevant to the market now, but one of my stocks when I was a professional analyst used to be CSR when it was a sugar, iron ore and coal stock, and I still keep an eye out … Read more
Sunday 22 May Background All metals fell back last week. Gold remains in its short term uptrend, and most base metals (copper especially) are endeavouring to base (pun intended). WTI and Brent hit new rally highs, while iron ore ($55.70) continues to form what might be (or might not be) its right shoulder. The head and … Read more