Sunday 9 October Commodities Well, I was dead right about the next significant move in gold being down. It fell $65 during the week to $1252/oz. While it may or may not rally a bit in the short term, I would think that in the medium term it has further to fall. First support lies … Read more
Sunday 2 October Commodities Gold remains stuck in its consolidation zone just below key resistance. I still think the next significant move will be down, before gold really takes off. Silver looks similar except there is little overhead resistance, but it could easily come back like gold before exploding upwards. Copper remains trapped in its … Read more
Sunday 25 September Commodities No change to the view on gold. The next move of significance is likely to be down $100-200. Just to put that into perspective, I should add that if the long term uptrend is not breached at that point, we could then see a move to $5,000 or more. Iron ore … Read more
Sunday 18 September Commodities Gold at $1310 is just hanging in there, poised to make a significant move. My thinking at present is that it will be down, with a target of under $1200, but that won’t be clear until the move actually commences. Any further weakness from the current price would cinch it. I should … Read more
Saturday 10 September Commodities All the noise this week did not change the picture for gold and the other commodities. Tin is the best looking base metal but most are probably going to weaken a bit in the short term. Currencies Again, some big moves yesterday but nothing to change the big picture, being that the … Read more
Saturday 3 September Commodities I covered commodities in a separate article today, so please refer to that for details. Currencies Clearest currency signals are presented by the Yen and Yuan, which remain in uptrends against the US$, while the Euro and Pound remain in consolidation mode. The all important A$ (for we Australians, anyway) is consolidating in the US74-77¢ range, … Read more
Saturday 3 September Introduction I thought I would expand my usual presentation of commodities this week, to add interest for the reader. Let me know what you think. Precious metals Gold on Friday bounced off the short-term uptrend line drawn through the December and May lows but is still constrained by the longer term downtrend line … Read more
Sunday 28 August Background Nothing new to say on commodities or stock indices. Graphite stocks With a market cap of $1.1bn Syrah Resources (SYR) is still by far the largest graphite stock, the next two largest being Magnis (MNS) at $276m and the much smaller Kibaran (KNL) at $58m. Syrah’s Balama project is fully funded and construction is underway. … Read more
Sunday 21 August Commodities No change to my view on gold. At $1,346 it is currently stuck in a consolidation zone just below a downtrend line. Lead, zinc and tin are each slap-up against downtrend lines and could fall back in coming weeks. Copper and nickel seems better placed for a continuation of their rallies. It is … Read more
Saturday 13 August Commodities Little has altered to change my views. Gold may fall back in the next couple of months, unless it can break through the resistance posed by the downtrend line drawn across the 2011 and 2012 peaks. Silver looks better than gold. Base metals are generally good, although I should mention that zinc at … Read more
Sunday 7 August Commodities Nothing new to add to last week’s commentary: there remains a question in my mind over whether gold can continue to rise or whether it will first pull back sharply; I remain relatively bullish on base metals with nickel looking best; iron ore could rally another $10 or so before pulling … Read more
Sunday 31 July Commodities I remain positive generally on precious and base metals, but there is nothing new to say. Oil (WTI $41.49) fell sharply last week, much as I expected. There is not necessarily much less on the downside, perhaps to the high 30s, but it is difficult to be sure. Iron ore ($58.80) … Read more
Saturday 23 July Commodities I am increasingly of the view that gold could continue to mark time for a bit. Indices Nothing new to say. All good. Battery stocks The major lithium plays all look to be forming tops. That includes ORE, GMM/GXY, NMT and PLS. I just think there are too many of these stocks now. It … Read more
Sunday 17 July Commodities Bother gold and silver dropped back a little over the week but there is nothing further of any note to add. I note that zinc’s strong surge has taken it within $100 of significant resistance. Tin too. It is now nickel that looks best placed for further gains in the short term. Of the bulks, … Read more
Sunday 10 July Commodities Gold (NY $1,358) rose further during the week, closer to that line of resistance I mentioned last week, which is currently at about $1,395 but declining each day. Meanwhile silver continues to lead. Base metals remain encouraging and during the week it was nickel’s turn to break free. Oil continues to gradually … Read more
Sunday 3 July Commodities Gold (Ldn $1,340, NY $1,339) rallied further during the week and is close to the downtrend line drawn through and extended from the declining tops in 2011 and 2012. The significance of this resistance will not be known until it is tested and either overcome or enforced. However, silver (Ldn $19.34) … Read more
Friday 1 July The return on the portfolio was 55% for the 12 months ended 30 June 2016, using the method I have been using up until now. It was based on cumulative dollar gains divided by the average portfolio value. However I have decided to switch to a new method of calculating returns, based on … Read more
Sunday 26 June Commodities London gold (now $1,315) is at a marginal new high within an upwards sloping consolidation zone. US gold ($1,322) has retreated from its intra-week high of $1,363 near the downtrend line extended from the 2011 and 2012 tops. Just how important that line is will be seen in due course. Silver ($18.04) presents a more … Read more
Sunday 19 June Commodities During the week London gold hit a new 2016 high of $1311, above the January 2015 high of $1296, before falling back to $1291. Is it enough to call it the start of a new bull market? Probably not, but it is encouraging. Silver (now $17.37) is also looking quite good. A … Read more
Sunday 12 June Commodities Gold continues to consolidate in a relatively tight range. Other base metals are floundering but zinc (now $2,078) continues very strong and with no real resistance until $2,350. Has iron ore (now $52.10) finished the down-leg of the right shoulder of a head and shoulders bottom formation? Just a thought. Oil (WTI now … Read more
Sunday 3 June Commodities Nothing much new to say. But sugar seems to have broken upwards. Sugar is irrelevant to the market now, but one of my stocks when I was a professional analyst used to be CSR when it was a sugar, iron ore and coal stock, and I still keep an eye out … Read more
Sunday 22 May Background All metals fell back last week. Gold remains in its short term uptrend, and most base metals (copper especially) are endeavouring to base (pun intended). WTI and Brent hit new rally highs, while iron ore ($55.70) continues to form what might be (or might not be) its right shoulder. The head and … Read more
Saturday 14 May Backdrop Nothing new this week. I remain relatively bullish on most commodities medium term. Breakouts I noted quite a few breakouts during the week. I bought two and may buy some others. They included: POP (Primary Opinion) 5.8¢, MC $15.5m. Proposing to buy Maggie Beer Products for $15m, cum capital raising of … Read more
Sunday 8 May Commodities No new earth shattering predictions to add this week. I remain relatively bullish in the short to medium term on oil, iron ore and many metals. Currencies The US dollar index has bounced off support at the bottom of its medium term consolidation zone. The Yen hit a new high against the US$ before falling … Read more
Sunday 1 May Commodities After consolidating for some weeks post its initial move from the downtrend, gold (London $1285, Comex $1290) has made a new high, albeit only tentative. So silver’s earlier move (and silver finished this week on another new high of $17.86) has now been confirmed by gold. Very bullish. In base metals, the picture is encouraging … Read more
Sunday 24 April Commodities Having tentatively broken upside from its down-channel a few weeks ago, gold ($1243) has been trading in a tight trading range. A break upwards to above $1300 (the high in January 2015) would confirm the new short term uptrend. Silver ($1.19) appears more clear cut. Definitely broke downtrend last week. Base … Read more
Sunday 17 April Commodities Gold is consolidating after its breakout from the multi-year down-channel. Silver looks as if it might break out but has not yet done so. Of the base metals, copper, zinc and tin broke short term downtrends some weeks ago (but not lead, nickel and alumiunium) but it is too early to … Read more
Sunday 10 April Background Nothing of note occurred in commodities In currencies, the Japanese Yen took a hike and broke up out of its recent trading zone, otherwise little of major significance. Most stockmarket indices remain in bear market rally mode. Stocks The big four banks and Macquarie are testing or on their way to testing their … Read more
Monday 4 April Commodities In my absence from this blog over the past two months, gold has broken its short term downtrend line but silver has not. In base metals, copper, zinc and tin have broken short term downtrend lines but lead and nickel and aluminium have not. Iron ore (currently $54) has clearly broken its downtrend but … Read more
Sunday 7 February Commodities Gold (pm fix $1,150) has rallied to the extent that it is seriously challenging its downtrend, but as always a number of interpretations can be made so the picture is not entirely clear. A move to $1,250 would clarify that we have seen the bottom. Silver (pm fix $14.91) has rallied too but … Read more