Saturday 9 January Background An interesting week with major falls in most asset classes except in gold. But the rally in gold has not yet cut its downtrend, and silver hardly reacted to the turmoil at all. Base metals all sold off – copper hit a new low and tin looks like it might do so … Read more
Sunday 3 January Background Most commodities continued to consolidate within their downtrends. The only excitement was in Henry Hub gas which jumped from US$1.56 on the eve of Christmas to US$2.32 at year’s end. Still in its downtrend though. Iron ore staged a minor rally to $42.90 but is well within its downtrend. Nothing new in currencies, … Read more
Saturday 26 December Background No change to the bearish view on metals and other commodities. Currencies continue to trade in narrow consolidation zones. Global stock market indices continue bearish, in my opinion, and Australia is no exception. Australian stocks VTG () is making new highs. I just about bought these a month ago when they first broke … Read more
Saturday 19 December Background No sign of any change in downtrends for precious, noble and base metals, nor for oil, iron ore and coal. Currencies remain in consolidation zones. Stock market indices in the US and Europe continue to look very bearish to me, and also most Asian indices, but Shanghai has not (yet) broken its short … Read more
Saturday 12 December The big picture My charting system is back up and running so I can now comment on the wider picture. I didn’t really miss much in the last couple of weeks. As yet there is no change to my bearish view of metal prices. Even the standout, palladium, is going to succumb. Crude … Read more
Sunday 6 December Commodities/forex Still unavailable I’m afraid. Indices Nothing of much note to add to prior comments. Remaining very cautious. Australian stocks Nothing much new here either, and anyway I have run out of time to do a great deal. One thing is that I would rather be be selling than buying shares in … Read more
Saturday 21 November Background Gold (London fix $1,081/oz) hit a new low during the week on its way down to $1,000 or so. Silver did likewise. The collapse in base metal prices continued with new lows in copper, lead, zinc and nickel. I think there is much further to fall. I can envisage copper (currently $4,810/t) … Read more
Saturday 14 November I had a bit more time on my hands today so have quite a long post this weekend. Commodities Gold finished the week at $1081, on support from the low in July, but I don’t place much store in this holding. There is better support at around $1,000. Copper, lead and zinc hit new … Read more
Sunday 8 November Well, gold ($1,104) did not take off after all. It did not break its downtrend and remains in downtrend. Base metals are still in downtrend, as is Newcastle coal, whilst oil and iron ore are still within consolidation zones. US equity markets have had a bear market rally, which is nearing its logical conclusion. … Read more
Sunday 18 October Background The rally in gold (London fix 1181) has broken a short term downtrend line. Is the bear market over? Too soon to tell. Base metals have rallied but arguably remain in downtrends. Oil and iron ore remain in consolidation zones, coal remains in downtrend and uranium continues to show potential for a … Read more
Sunday 11 October Background Gold (pm fix $1151, Comex $1155) rallied during the week but remains in downtrend. However silver (Ldn fix $15.99) shows tentative signs of breaking out. Base metals remain in downtrends, even zinc (LME cash $1824) which rallied strongly. Crude oil (WTI $49.67) is still consolidating in a broad zone ($40-60). Likewise … Read more
Sunday 4 October Market background All metals remain in downtrend with the exception of Palladium ($659) which has rallied strongly since its false breakdown below support at $570. Oil (WTI $45.55) and iron ore ($54) continue to trade within broad consolidation zones. Coal Newcastle ($56.70) remains in downtrend. Nothing of much long term importance in currencies. The … Read more
Sunday 27 September General backdrop Gold’s rise during the week did not beak the downtrend, but of course denominated in AUD, gold is a different story thanks to the fall in the A$. At A$1,630/oz it is not far off the peak of A$1,727 reached in November 2011. All other metals remain in downtrends. Zinc hit a … Read more
Sunday 20 September Again, no change to the generally bearish view on commodities, likewise on equity markets. Aust Bauxite (ABX, 23.5¢) has rallied strongly over the last week or two but does not look convincing. Bionomics (BNO, 54.5¢) has broken its downtrend line. Some gold stocks have been great performers (e.g. SBM) and many look reasonably … Read more
Sunday 13 September No change to the bearish view on commodities. Most rallied a little. Stockmarkets are consolidating after their sharp falls. The US indices appear to be forming upwards triangles with resistance at around 1990 for the S&P500 and 16,650 for the DJIA. The other markets are less clear cut. Nothing else to say. … Read more
Saturday 5 September No change to my bearish view on commodities. The major currencies are fluffing around but both the NZ$ and the A$ closed at new lows. Main support for the A$ is at the US50¢ level at which it bottomed in 2008. I envisage it testing this level within 12 months. I remain … Read more
Sunday 30 August No change to the generally bearish view on commodities. Gold has still not broken its downtrend so my view has not changed. All base metals bar tin hit new lows during the week before rallying. Palladium crashed through support at long last. Oil rallied to resistance. Iron ore fell early in the week then … Read more
Sunday 23 August Well, it was an interesting week. Equities smashed downwards, most commodities too, except for gold which rallied. I had been bearish for some weeks on US stocks and that view came good with a vengeance. In my opinion US stocks have entered a new bear market, although that won’t be confirmed until the … Read more
Sunday 16 August Commodities A number of metals rallied a little during the week but my view remains negative. Oil (WTI) fell to a new low in the current bear market; currently $42.47 it would not surprise to see it fall to the 2008/09 low of $30-31. Iron ore and coal remain in bear markets. Currencies No … Read more
Sunday 9 August Commodities Most commodities of interest to Australian investors fell to new lows last week, among them copper, lead, zinc and nickel, while WTI closed at its low of US$43.87 for the week and in coming days could test the previous low of US$43.34 reached in March. If this support fails then a fall to the $30-40 … Read more
Sunday 2 August Commodities, currencies, indices Nothing much has changed in commodites and currencies. I remain cautious on the US market, and some Asian markets have broken support. In contrast the All Ords looks OK, which is a little incongruous. Stocks Prospective zinc mine developer Terramin (TZN, price 20¢, mkt cap $356m) goes from strength to strength. … Read more
Sunday 26 July Commodities My negative view on most commodities of interest to Australian mining and petroleum investors remains unchanged. Gold (London fix $1,097) closed at a new low on its way to next support at around $1,000; copper (LME cash $5,340) and aluminium (LME cash $1,604) also found new lows. Oil (WTI $48.44) fell sharply while iron ore ($50.60) rallied … Read more
Sunday 19 July Commodities Gold (now at $1133) has fallen decisively through key support and my interpretation is that it can fall several hundred dollars from here. Most base metals bounced during the week but I remain bearish; platinum and palladium have continued their fall; oil (WTI $50.83) could test recent lows of under $45; iron ore … Read more
Sunday 12 July No change to my generally bearish view on commodities. During the week a new bear market low in iron ore was established at $44.10 before a recovery to $48.30 on Friday. I dare say we have not yet seen the bottom but what it will do this week is impossible to guess from its … Read more
Sunday 5 July There was renewed weakness in commodities across the board during the past week, confirming my bearish stance. Iron ore fell $6.60 to $54.10 and has now established the potential for a trading range between $46.70 (the April low) and $65.40 (the June high). One interpretation of the fall in Brent oil to $60.32 … Read more
Sunday 7 June Commodities Gold (US$1,165) continues to look bearish, and base metals likewise. I remain neutral on oil and iron ore. The latter hit a new rally high of US$63.80 but that doesn’t necessarily mean anything. Coal remains in downtrend. Currencies The US dollar index is consolidating in the 93-100 range. It fell marginally during the week. Against … Read more
Sunday 31 May Futures Again, there is no change to views for futures markets. Some comments: The A$ (at 76.49 US¢) continued its pull back from the peak of 80.14 US¢ achieved earlier this month. However, it is too early to declare the rally over – a break of 75¢ would be required for that. The fall … Read more
Sunday 17 May I look at charts for my portfolio stocks and a few others each day, plus my charting system does a database search for breakouts daily, but otherwise I look at many charts, including those of certain commodities, just once a week; otherwise it would take too much of my time. So here are … Read more
Sunday 10 May Currencies The US$ index continues to fall, with strength in Sterling and the Euro. Two weeks ago I wrote that “the A$ at just over 78¢ has tentatively broken its short term downtrend line, which gives rise to the possibility of a rally. Let’s wait and see.” Well, it did stage a … Read more
Sunday 3 May I view many charts, including those of commodities, on a weekly basis only, and highlight below a few of my observations. Double click on any of the charts to enlarge them. Iron Ore price US$56.20/dmt Last week the iron ore price rallied into the high 50s as I thought it might. It … Read more