Saturday 14 May Backdrop Nothing new this week. I remain relatively bullish on most commodities medium term. Breakouts I noted quite a few breakouts during the week. I bought two and may buy some others. They included: POP (Primary Opinion) 5.8¢, MC $15.5m. Proposing to buy Maggie Beer Products for $15m, cum capital raising of … Read more
Sunday 8 May Commodities No new earth shattering predictions to add this week. I remain relatively bullish in the short to medium term on oil, iron ore and many metals. Currencies The US dollar index has bounced off support at the bottom of its medium term consolidation zone. The Yen hit a new high against the US$ before falling … Read more
Sunday 1 May Commodities After consolidating for some weeks post its initial move from the downtrend, gold (London $1285, Comex $1290) has made a new high, albeit only tentative. So silver’s earlier move (and silver finished this week on another new high of $17.86) has now been confirmed by gold. Very bullish. In base metals, the picture is encouraging … Read more
Sunday 24 April Commodities Having tentatively broken upside from its down-channel a few weeks ago, gold ($1243) has been trading in a tight trading range. A break upwards to above $1300 (the high in January 2015) would confirm the new short term uptrend. Silver ($1.19) appears more clear cut. Definitely broke downtrend last week. Base … Read more
Sunday 17 April Commodities Gold is consolidating after its breakout from the multi-year down-channel. Silver looks as if it might break out but has not yet done so. Of the base metals, copper, zinc and tin broke short term downtrends some weeks ago (but not lead, nickel and alumiunium) but it is too early to … Read more
Sunday 10 April Background Nothing of note occurred in commodities In currencies, the Japanese Yen took a hike and broke up out of its recent trading zone, otherwise little of major significance. Most stockmarket indices remain in bear market rally mode. Stocks The big four banks and Macquarie are testing or on their way to testing their … Read more
Monday 4 April Commodities In my absence from this blog over the past two months, gold has broken its short term downtrend line but silver has not. In base metals, copper, zinc and tin have broken short term downtrend lines but lead and nickel and aluminium have not. Iron ore (currently $54) has clearly broken its downtrend but … Read more
Sunday 7 February Commodities Gold (pm fix $1,150) has rallied to the extent that it is seriously challenging its downtrend, but as always a number of interpretations can be made so the picture is not entirely clear. A move to $1,250 would clarify that we have seen the bottom. Silver (pm fix $14.91) has rallied too but … Read more
Sunday 31 January Background Again, most commodities rallied during the week but all remain in their downtrends. Bond prices continued their rally. Indices rallied during the week, with the exception of Shanghai which fell through crucial support. As far as I am concerned, until I am convinced otherwise, the world has entered a bear market. No doubt … Read more
Sunday 17 January Background Except for gold and silver, commodities continued their slide last week with new lows in copper, tin and oil. No change to my bearish view at this point. In currencies the US$ continued in its consolidation zone but the Yen looks ready to break upwards and it is the Pound, not the Euro, … Read more
Saturday 9 January Background An interesting week with major falls in most asset classes except in gold. But the rally in gold has not yet cut its downtrend, and silver hardly reacted to the turmoil at all. Base metals all sold off – copper hit a new low and tin looks like it might do so … Read more
Sunday 3 January Background Most commodities continued to consolidate within their downtrends. The only excitement was in Henry Hub gas which jumped from US$1.56 on the eve of Christmas to US$2.32 at year’s end. Still in its downtrend though. Iron ore staged a minor rally to $42.90 but is well within its downtrend. Nothing new in currencies, … Read more
Saturday 26 December Background No change to the bearish view on metals and other commodities. Currencies continue to trade in narrow consolidation zones. Global stock market indices continue bearish, in my opinion, and Australia is no exception. Australian stocks VTG () is making new highs. I just about bought these a month ago when they first broke … Read more
Saturday 19 December Background No sign of any change in downtrends for precious, noble and base metals, nor for oil, iron ore and coal. Currencies remain in consolidation zones. Stock market indices in the US and Europe continue to look very bearish to me, and also most Asian indices, but Shanghai has not (yet) broken its short … Read more
Saturday 12 December The big picture My charting system is back up and running so I can now comment on the wider picture. I didn’t really miss much in the last couple of weeks. As yet there is no change to my bearish view of metal prices. Even the standout, palladium, is going to succumb. Crude … Read more
Sunday 6 December Commodities/forex Still unavailable I’m afraid. Indices Nothing of much note to add to prior comments. Remaining very cautious. Australian stocks Nothing much new here either, and anyway I have run out of time to do a great deal. One thing is that I would rather be be selling than buying shares in … Read more
Saturday 21 November Background Gold (London fix $1,081/oz) hit a new low during the week on its way down to $1,000 or so. Silver did likewise. The collapse in base metal prices continued with new lows in copper, lead, zinc and nickel. I think there is much further to fall. I can envisage copper (currently $4,810/t) … Read more
Saturday 14 November I had a bit more time on my hands today so have quite a long post this weekend. Commodities Gold finished the week at $1081, on support from the low in July, but I don’t place much store in this holding. There is better support at around $1,000. Copper, lead and zinc hit new … Read more
Sunday 8 November Well, gold ($1,104) did not take off after all. It did not break its downtrend and remains in downtrend. Base metals are still in downtrend, as is Newcastle coal, whilst oil and iron ore are still within consolidation zones. US equity markets have had a bear market rally, which is nearing its logical conclusion. … Read more
Sunday 18 October Background The rally in gold (London fix 1181) has broken a short term downtrend line. Is the bear market over? Too soon to tell. Base metals have rallied but arguably remain in downtrends. Oil and iron ore remain in consolidation zones, coal remains in downtrend and uranium continues to show potential for a … Read more
Sunday 11 October Background Gold (pm fix $1151, Comex $1155) rallied during the week but remains in downtrend. However silver (Ldn fix $15.99) shows tentative signs of breaking out. Base metals remain in downtrends, even zinc (LME cash $1824) which rallied strongly. Crude oil (WTI $49.67) is still consolidating in a broad zone ($40-60). Likewise … Read more
Sunday 4 October Market background All metals remain in downtrend with the exception of Palladium ($659) which has rallied strongly since its false breakdown below support at $570. Oil (WTI $45.55) and iron ore ($54) continue to trade within broad consolidation zones. Coal Newcastle ($56.70) remains in downtrend. Nothing of much long term importance in currencies. The … Read more
Sunday 27 September General backdrop Gold’s rise during the week did not beak the downtrend, but of course denominated in AUD, gold is a different story thanks to the fall in the A$. At A$1,630/oz it is not far off the peak of A$1,727 reached in November 2011. All other metals remain in downtrends. Zinc hit a … Read more
Sunday 20 September Again, no change to the generally bearish view on commodities, likewise on equity markets. Aust Bauxite (ABX, 23.5¢) has rallied strongly over the last week or two but does not look convincing. Bionomics (BNO, 54.5¢) has broken its downtrend line. Some gold stocks have been great performers (e.g. SBM) and many look reasonably … Read more
Sunday 13 September No change to the bearish view on commodities. Most rallied a little. Stockmarkets are consolidating after their sharp falls. The US indices appear to be forming upwards triangles with resistance at around 1990 for the S&P500 and 16,650 for the DJIA. The other markets are less clear cut. Nothing else to say. … Read more
Saturday 5 September No change to my bearish view on commodities. The major currencies are fluffing around but both the NZ$ and the A$ closed at new lows. Main support for the A$ is at the US50¢ level at which it bottomed in 2008. I envisage it testing this level within 12 months. I remain … Read more
Sunday 30 August No change to the generally bearish view on commodities. Gold has still not broken its downtrend so my view has not changed. All base metals bar tin hit new lows during the week before rallying. Palladium crashed through support at long last. Oil rallied to resistance. Iron ore fell early in the week then … Read more
Sunday 23 August Well, it was an interesting week. Equities smashed downwards, most commodities too, except for gold which rallied. I had been bearish for some weeks on US stocks and that view came good with a vengeance. In my opinion US stocks have entered a new bear market, although that won’t be confirmed until the … Read more
Sunday 16 August Commodities A number of metals rallied a little during the week but my view remains negative. Oil (WTI) fell to a new low in the current bear market; currently $42.47 it would not surprise to see it fall to the 2008/09 low of $30-31. Iron ore and coal remain in bear markets. Currencies No … Read more
Sunday 9 August Commodities Most commodities of interest to Australian investors fell to new lows last week, among them copper, lead, zinc and nickel, while WTI closed at its low of US$43.87 for the week and in coming days could test the previous low of US$43.34 reached in March. If this support fails then a fall to the $30-40 … Read more