Sunday 2 August Commodities, currencies, indices Nothing much has changed in commodites and currencies. I remain cautious on the US market, and some Asian markets have broken support. In contrast the All Ords looks OK, which is a little incongruous. Stocks Prospective zinc mine developer Terramin (TZN, price 20¢, mkt cap $356m) goes from strength to strength. … Read more
Sunday 26 July Commodities My negative view on most commodities of interest to Australian mining and petroleum investors remains unchanged. Gold (London fix $1,097) closed at a new low on its way to next support at around $1,000; copper (LME cash $5,340) and aluminium (LME cash $1,604) also found new lows. Oil (WTI $48.44) fell sharply while iron ore ($50.60) rallied … Read more
Sunday 19 July Commodities Gold (now at $1133) has fallen decisively through key support and my interpretation is that it can fall several hundred dollars from here. Most base metals bounced during the week but I remain bearish; platinum and palladium have continued their fall; oil (WTI $50.83) could test recent lows of under $45; iron ore … Read more
Sunday 12 July No change to my generally bearish view on commodities. During the week a new bear market low in iron ore was established at $44.10 before a recovery to $48.30 on Friday. I dare say we have not yet seen the bottom but what it will do this week is impossible to guess from its … Read more
Sunday 5 July There was renewed weakness in commodities across the board during the past week, confirming my bearish stance. Iron ore fell $6.60 to $54.10 and has now established the potential for a trading range between $46.70 (the April low) and $65.40 (the June high). One interpretation of the fall in Brent oil to $60.32 … Read more
Sunday 7 June Commodities Gold (US$1,165) continues to look bearish, and base metals likewise. I remain neutral on oil and iron ore. The latter hit a new rally high of US$63.80 but that doesn’t necessarily mean anything. Coal remains in downtrend. Currencies The US dollar index is consolidating in the 93-100 range. It fell marginally during the week. Against … Read more
Sunday 31 May Futures Again, there is no change to views for futures markets. Some comments: The A$ (at 76.49 US¢) continued its pull back from the peak of 80.14 US¢ achieved earlier this month. However, it is too early to declare the rally over – a break of 75¢ would be required for that. The fall … Read more
Sunday 17 May I look at charts for my portfolio stocks and a few others each day, plus my charting system does a database search for breakouts daily, but otherwise I look at many charts, including those of certain commodities, just once a week; otherwise it would take too much of my time. So here are … Read more
Sunday 10 May Currencies The US$ index continues to fall, with strength in Sterling and the Euro. Two weeks ago I wrote that “the A$ at just over 78¢ has tentatively broken its short term downtrend line, which gives rise to the possibility of a rally. Let’s wait and see.” Well, it did stage a … Read more
Sunday 3 May I view many charts, including those of commodities, on a weekly basis only, and highlight below a few of my observations. Double click on any of the charts to enlarge them. Iron Ore price US$56.20/dmt Last week the iron ore price rallied into the high 50s as I thought it might. It … Read more