Mittagong, Saturday 27 JanuaryPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyShortened version today as I am travelling without much time to devote to this.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.39% up 0.04%, wkly, daily) continued in its short-term uptrend within its long-term uptrend.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (103.43 up 0.15 pts, wkly, daily) … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 20 January 2024Price movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyThe S&P500 has broken out to a new record high! I think we could follow.Government bondsThe T-Bond price series to which I have access for my Metastock charts ($120.00 down $2.88, wkly, daily) (back-adjusted) pulled back sharply, resulting in higher yields. Whether … Read more
Newcastle, Sunday 14 JanuaryPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyNothing spectacular this week.Government bondsThe T-Bond price series to which I have access for my Metastock charts ($122.87 up $0.84, wkly, daily) (back-adjusted) stabilised this week after previously breaking its short term (10-wk) uptrend. Whether a shallower uptrend emerges in due course remains … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 6 JanuaryPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyThe rally in bond prices has broken and so yields have risen. In response equity markets have broken their immediate uptrends.Government bondsThe T-Bond price series to which I have access for my Metastock charts ($122.03 down $2.91, wkly, daily) (back-adjusted) has broken its … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 30 DecemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyGold has broken out!Government bondsThe T-Bond price series to which I have access for my Metastock charts ($124.95 up $1.15, wkly, daily) (back-adjusted) remains in its short-term uptrend. The yield of the longer-dated 30-yr T-Bond (4.02% down 0.04%, wkly, daily) remains in its … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 23 DecemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyA quieter week leading into Christmas but things still look as if they will work out.Government bondsThe T-Bond price series to which I have access for my Metastock charts ($123.78 even, wkly, daily) (back-adjusted) broke out in the previous week and has since … Read more
Newcastle, Sunday 17 DecemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyBonds to soar as interest rates fall, and the big iron ore producers look great. Keep an eye on copper too.Government bondsThe market has decided; bond prices are going to rise and bond yields are going to fall. This follows from the fact … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 9 DecemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyGold is still hesitating, for now, but bitcoin is blasting upward.And iron ore has broken upwards out of its consolidation zone.Government bondsThe T-Bond price series to which I have access for my Metastock charts ($119.00 up $0.84, wkly, daily) (back-adjusted) peaked close to … Read more
Newcastle, Sunday 3 DecemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyGold could be on the brink of exploding upward. Bitcoin is already doing so.I wrote most of this report on Saturday but finished it on Sunday.Government bondsThe T-Bond price series to which I have access for my Metastock charts ($118.16 up $3.28, wkly, … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 25 NovemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyBitcoin 1, USD 0Government bondsThe T-Bond price series to which I have access for my Metastock charts ($114.84 down $0.56, wkly, daily) (back-adjusted) lost some momentum on Friday but remains in short-term uptrend. Correspondingly, the yield of the longer-dated 30-yr T-Bond (4.60% down … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 18 NovemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyStockmarkets are looking good, presumably in part because govt bond yields are falling and this trend looks likely to continue for a while.Government bondsThe intermediate downtrend has broken in the T-Bond price series to which I have access for my Metastock charts ($115.41 … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 11 NovemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyBitcoin is the most interesting right now of all of the markets covered.Government bondsThe T-Bond price in the series to which I have access for my Metastock charts ($113.37 down $0.28, wkly, daily) (back-adjusted) has provided more evidence that perhaps the immediate downtrend … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 4 NovemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyThere were important reversals this week in the USD, T-Bond prices and US equities.Government bondsThe T-Bond price in the series to which I have access for my Metastock charts ($113.65 up $4.16, wkly, daily) (back-adjusted) has rallied sharply to touch the bottom of … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 28 OctoberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyBitcoin has broken out.Government bondsThe T-Bond price series to which I have access for my Metastock charts ($109.50 up $1.03, wkly, daily) (back-adjusted) remains in its downtrend.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (106.56 up 0.40 pts, wkly, daily) broke its steep 3-mth uptrend in the … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 21 OctoberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyThe outlook for equity markets appears poor. But hard currencies gold and bitcoin look good.Government bondsThe T-Bond price series to which I have access for my Metastock charts ($108.47 down $4.31, wkly, daily) (back-adjusted) fell heavily again this week. Consequently the yield went … Read more
Newcastle, Sunday 15 OctoberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyGold and oil have soared on the declaration of war in the Middle East but in both cases I am not yet sure whether their rallies are ready to continue.Government bondsThe T-Bond price in the series to which I have access for my … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 7 OctoberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyHigher bond yields, the higher USD and economic uncertainty are dampening commodity prices and equities. Bitcoin is the only bright spark at present.Government bondsThe T-Bond price series to which I have access for my Metastock charts ($110.47 down $3.31, mthly, wkly, daily) (back-adjusted) … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 30 SeptemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyThe rise in bond yields and in the USD, and their negative effect on gold and commodity prices, are the main features at present.Government bondsThe T-Bond price series to which I have access for my Metastock charts ($113.781 down $1.125, wkly, daily) (back-adjusted) … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 23 SeptemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyCaution rules.Government bondsThe T-Bond price series to which I have access for my Metastock charts ($116.90 down $1.69, wkly, daily) (back-adjusted) hit a new multi-year low this week. Consequently bond yields rose; the yield of the longer-dated 30-yr T-Bond (4.52% up 0.11%, mthly, … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday xxPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyItâs been oil, uranium and iron ore for the last few weeks. Hopefully others will join in.Government bondsThe T-Bond price series to which I have access for my Metastock charts ($118.59 down $0.97, wkly, daily) (back-adjusted) remains in its consolidation zone. But the yield … Read more
St Ives, Saturday 9 SeptemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyNot much joy as yet.Government bondsThe T-Bond price series to which I have access for my Metastock charts ($119.56 down $0.78, wkly, daily) (back-adjusted) was stable within its long-term downtrend.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (105.09 up 0.85 pts, wkly, daily) continued its rally.Against … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 2 SeptemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyOil prices have broken their downtrends. Iron ore has broken out too. Other commodities are on the verge of doing so. Could this be the start of the next bull market in commodities?Government bondsThe T-Bond price series to which I have access for … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 26 AugustPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyNothing of much note to report this week.Government bondsThe T-Bond price series to which I have access for my Metastock charts ($119.75 up $0.53, wkly, daily) (back-adjusted) broke down through the low seen in October but then rallied to close slightly higher over … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 19 AugustPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyNo joy in hard currencies nor in commodities.Government bondsThe T-Bond price series to which I have access for my Metastock charts ($119.21 down $1.53, wkly, daily) (back-adjusted) has fallen further to match the low seen in October last year. A bounce from here … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 12 AugustPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyNothing of much note this week.Government bondsThe T-Bond price series to which I have access for my Metastock charts ($120.75 down $1.25, wkly, daily) (back-adjusted) rallied earlier in the week then fell back. The downtrend is intact.The yield of the longer-dated 30-yr TBond … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 5 AugustPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyWatch out below for iron ore?Government bondsThe T-Bond price series to which I have access for my Metastock charts ($122.00 down $2.25, wkly, daily) (back-adjusted) fell sharply earlier in the week before staging a partial recovery on Friday. The trend remains down.The yield … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 29 JulyPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyThe big news is that oil prices have cut their downtrend lines.Government bondsThe T-Bond price series to which I have access for my Metastock charts ($124.25 down $2.13, wkly, daily) (back-adjusted) continues to look negative. The yield of the longer-dated 30-yr T-Bond (4.03% … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 22 JulyPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyNothing much of note this week.Government bondsThe T-Bond price series to which I have access for my Metastock charts ($26.38 down $0.06, wkly, daily) (back-adjusted) continues to look negative. The yield of the longer-dated 30-yr T-Bond (3.9% even, wkly, daily) remains in uptrend.Fiat … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 15 JulyPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyThe fall in the USD and the consequent strength in the AUD is the main feature this week.Government bondsThe T-Bond price series to which I have access for my Metastock charts ($126.44 up $2.69, wkly, daily) (back-adjusted) rallied back up to resistance. I … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 8 Jul 2023Price movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyThat new high in the US market turned out to be a furphy, so all bets are off.Government bondsThe T-Bond price series to which I have access for my Metastock charts ($123.75 down $3.16, wkly, daily) (back-adjusted) has clearly broken its 7-months … Read more