Newcastle, Saturday 6 JulyPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyBond yields have resumed their fall and this is having a positive impact on equity prices.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.47% down 0.03%, wkly, daily) rallied further on Monday then pulled back sharply to close down on the week. In my … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 29 JunePrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyLittle new to reportGovernment bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.50% up 0.10%, wkly, daily) is consolidating after previously breaking its 4-yr uptrend. It is likely that we’ll see a further fall in yield in due course.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (105.87 up 0.07 … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 22 JunePrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyNothing much new this week.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.40% up 0.05%, wkly, daily) is consolidating after previously breaking its 4-yr uptrend. It is likely that we’ll see a further fall in yield in due course.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (105.80 up … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 15 JunePrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyThe yield of long-dated T-Bonds has confirmed a change of direction to downwards. That is bullish for equities.Government bondsAs I half expected would happen, the yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.35% down 0.20%, wkly, daily) has indeed broken the uptrend line in place … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 8 JunePrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyHave we seen a top in bond yields? If so, it would be positive for equity markets.Government bondsWith bond prices on the rise, the 4-yr uptrend line in the yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.55% down 0.10%, wkly, daily) shows signs of breaking … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 1 June 2024Price movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyNothing exciting to report.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.65% up 0.08%, wkly, daily) rallied from its long term uptrend, thus confirming the trend.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (104.67 down 0.05 pts, wkly, daily) marked time this week but remains in its … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 25 May 2024Price movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyAll looking pretty ordinary at the moment.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.57% up 0.01%, wkly, daily) traded in a narrow range during the week, and remains right on its long-term uptrend.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (104.72 up 0.27 pts, wkly, daily) … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 18 May 2024Price movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyGlobal bull markets in equities, in hard currencies, and in commodities except oil, lithium, and rare earths.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.56% down 0.09%, wkly, daily) is sitting right on its long term uptrend line. Ordinarily one would expect it … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 11 MayPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyNothing of much note this week.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.55% down 0.12%, wkly, daily) pulled back during the week but remains in its 4yr uptrend.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (103.50 up 0.27 pts, wkly, daily) managed a modest rally after the … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 4 MayPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyBig movements in currencies and US markets on Friday.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.66% down 0.12%, mthly, wkly, daily) pulled back during the week but remains in its 4-yr uptrend.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (105.03 down 0.91 pts, wkly, daily) pulled back … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 27 AprilPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyWill the rally in equity markets continue?Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.78% up 0.07%, wkly, daily) managed to eke out a new recent high on Thursday before closing the week marginally ahead. The long term uptrend is well intact. Looking ahead, … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 20 AprilPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyEquities in correction.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.71% up 0.11%, wkly, daily) continued its rise. Fiat currenciesThe USD index (106.15 up 0.12 pts, wkly, daily) consolidated in a narrow to retain the gains made in previous weeks.Against the USD, the AUD … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 13 AprilPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyEquity markets are likely to correct in the short term.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.60% up 0.07%, wkly, daily) continued its rally during the week. It remains in its short term and long term uptrends, with little resistance ahead of it … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 6 AprilPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyIt’s gold/silver/copper, and possibly oil, and potentially bitcoin if it can break through again.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.53% up 0.18%, wkly, daily) has risen further to a new high for the year and it remains in its short and medium … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 30 MarchPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyThe commentary covers only four days this week as markets were closed on Good Friday. Nothing dramatic to report.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.40% down 0.04%, mthly, wkly, daily) remains in its short term uptrend of 3 months duration and also … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 23 MarchPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyBTC is pulling back and oil could do likewise. Copper still looks good and iron ore still does not. Meanwhile, has NdPr bottomed? Too early to tell, of course, but it picked up a little on Friday.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 16 MarchPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyBitcoin has confirmed its breakout to new record highs. And copper may be commencing a new bull trend.Government bondsYou might have noticed I no longer talk about bond prices because I believe that bond yields i.e. the interest rate that bondholders are prepared … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 9 MarchPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyGold and bitcoin remain strong against fiat currencies and I believe that will continue in the long term.There is not much joy in mining and petroleum commodities just yet.I continue with my view that banks should be bought and resource stocks (except for … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 2 MarchPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyIron ore is likely to fall further but gold and bitcoin look good.The All Ords has at last pushed through the January 2022 high to move into record territory.Looks like the banks will outperform.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.33% down 0.05%, … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 24 FebruaryPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyUnfortunately I forgot to renew my subscription for the futures data package that I use, so have no access this weekend to updated charts on government bonds, fiat currencies, gold prices and some commodities. And I cannot renew my subsctiption until Monday.But I … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 17 FebruaryPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyNothing much happening, except in crypto.Government bondsThe yield for the 30-yr T-Bond (4.45% up 0.07%, wkly, daily) has made a new rally high. This implies a further rise could occur.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (104.30 up 0.19 pts, wkly, daily) made a new rally … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 10 FebruaryPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyEquitiy markets are in bull markets, and bitcoin is outperforming gold.Government bondsThe yield of the longer-dated 30-yr T-Bond (4.38% up 0.15%, wkly, daily) traded in a narrow range this week. The long term uptrend remains intact.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (104.11 up 0.19 pts, … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 3 FebruaryPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyNothing too dramatic this week.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.23% down 0.16%, wkly, daily) fell sharply earlier in the week then rallied sharply on Friday. The long-term uptrend in the yield remains intact.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (103.92 up 0.49 pts, wkly, … Read more
Mittagong, Saturday 27 JanuaryPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyShortened version today as I am travelling without much time to devote to this.Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.39% up 0.04%, wkly, daily) continued in its short-term uptrend within its long-term uptrend.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (103.43 up 0.15 pts, wkly, daily) … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 20 January 2024Price movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyThe S&P500 has broken out to a new record high! I think we could follow.Government bondsThe T-Bond price series to which I have access for my Metastock charts ($120.00 down $2.88, wkly, daily) (back-adjusted) pulled back sharply, resulting in higher yields. Whether … Read more
Newcastle, Sunday 14 JanuaryPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyNothing spectacular this week.Government bondsThe T-Bond price series to which I have access for my Metastock charts ($122.87 up $0.84, wkly, daily) (back-adjusted) stabilised this week after previously breaking its short term (10-wk) uptrend. Whether a shallower uptrend emerges in due course remains … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 6 JanuaryPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyThe rally in bond prices has broken and so yields have risen. In response equity markets have broken their immediate uptrends.Government bondsThe T-Bond price series to which I have access for my Metastock charts ($122.03 down $2.91, wkly, daily) (back-adjusted) has broken its … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 30 DecemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyGold has broken out!Government bondsThe T-Bond price series to which I have access for my Metastock charts ($124.95 up $1.15, wkly, daily) (back-adjusted) remains in its short-term uptrend. The yield of the longer-dated 30-yr T-Bond (4.02% down 0.04%, wkly, daily) remains in its … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 23 DecemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyA quieter week leading into Christmas but things still look as if they will work out.Government bondsThe T-Bond price series to which I have access for my Metastock charts ($123.78 even, wkly, daily) (back-adjusted) broke out in the previous week and has since … Read more
Newcastle, Sunday 17 DecemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyBonds to soar as interest rates fall, and the big iron ore producers look great. Keep an eye on copper too.Government bondsThe market has decided; bond prices are going to rise and bond yields are going to fall. This follows from the fact … Read more