Newcastle, Saturday 18 FebruaryPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyThe AUD has broken its uptrend against the USD. And the S&P500 appears to have broken its short term uptrend.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($125.78 down $1.15, wkly, daily) fell during the week, as I had half expected. It meant that the bond yield … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 11 FebruaryPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyStock markets are hesitating. Will it turn ugly? I prefer to think not.Government bondsThe T-Bond price (126.94 down 3.13, wkly, daily) has broken its short-term uptrend line just three weeks after having cut its medium-term downtrend line. So the immediate trend is not … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 4 FebruaryPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyThe S&P 500 has confirmed the break of the bear market downtrend line, while the All Ords not nearing its all time high.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($130.06 down $0.09, wkly, daily) remains outside of its downtrend, but is just trading in a narrow … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 28 JanuaryPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyThe S&P 500 has at last broken its bear market downtrend line.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($130.15 down $0.31, wkly, daily) has pulled back further so I’m going to ignore the tentative break of the downtrend line that occurred in the previous week.Fiat currenciesThe … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 21 JanuaryPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyStill waiting for the S&P500 to jump either way, but other markets such as the All Ords seem to have made up their minds already.And bitcoin has arguably cut its bear market downtrend line.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($130.47 up $0.46, wkly, daily) earlier … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 14 JanuaryPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyThis week has seen a dramatic change. Most commodities and hard currencies are rallying hard, and so is the AUD. And equity markets too. Is the bear vanquished?Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($130.00 up $0.78, wkly, daily) has rallied a little further but is … Read more
St Ives, Saturday 7 JanuaryPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyEquity markets are at an interesting point. But when has that not been the case?And gold continues to look good.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($129.22 up $3.88, wkly, daily) rose during the week but I am not sure the rally will last much … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 31 DecemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyIn the week between Christmas and New Year nothing much happens as a general rule and this week was no different.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($125.3 down $1.81, wkly, daily) continues to pull back from its mid-December high of $132.5, within its long term … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 24 DecemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyA quiet week ahead of the Christmas break. Merry Christmas everyone.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($127.15 down $4.00, wkly, daily) has pulled back as expected, and the yield (3.83% up 0.29%, wkly, daily) has therefore increased. Bond prices in other jurisdictions have done likewise.Fiat … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 10 DecemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyThe key question is whether the bear market rally in equity markets has run its course.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($129.906 up $0.125, wkly, daily) rallied a little further. It is nearing a significant downtrend line and it is also right on the resistance … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 3 DecemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyUS bond yields have broken their uptrend, suggesting that bond prices could rally further. And stock markets are providing mixed signals. For the time being I am cautious.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($129.78 up $2.19, wkly, daily) rallied a little further. The next resistance … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 26 NovemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyA quiet week.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($127.59 up $2.16, wkly, daily) continued its rally. The next resistance level is at $131, relating to the June low, while a downtrend line is coming through at slightly higher levels. However, the yield of the 30-year … Read more
Cobar, Saturday 19 NovemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyI’m on the road so this is a shortened version. Nothing much happened this week anyway.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($125.44 up $1.62, wkly, daily) continued its bear market rally. It could go as high as $130 before failing.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (106.93 down … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 12 NovemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyThe highlights of the week were the surge in bond prices and fall in the USD, the strength in gold and the weakness in bitcoin.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($123.81 up $4.37, wkly, daily) broke its medium term downtrend (dating from August) on Thurday … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 5 NovemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyThe AUD remains in downtrend, while bitcoin and oil look good for a rally.The US stock market is still in a bear market.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($119.43 down $1.81, wkly, daily) remains in its downtrend.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (110.877 up 0.125 pts, wkly, … Read more
Cambridge NZ, Saturday 29 OctoberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyNothing of much note this week, just more of the same. No obvious change in trends as yet.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($121.25 up $2.125, wkly, daily) rallied but remains in its downtrend.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (110.75 down 1.26 pts, wkly, daily) pulled … Read more
Somerville NZ, Saturday 22 OctoberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyNthing much to report this weekGovernment bondsThe T-Bond price ($119.12 down $4.59, wkly, daily) fell sharply once again, so the 30-yr yield (4.31% up 0.33%, wkly, daily) rose sharply, especially on Friday. The longer term significance of this can be seen in … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 15 OctoberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyNothing much happening, just more of the same. And we are still in the bear market.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($123.72 down $1.81, wkly, daily) hit a new low on Thursday and remains in downtrend.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (113.31 up 0.52 pts, wkly, daily) … Read more
St Ives, Saturday 8 OctoberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailySummaryGovernment bondsThe T-Bond price ($125.53 down $0.88, wkly, daily) remains in downtrend after a brief mid-week rally. The T-Bond yield (3.84% up 0.08%, wkly, daily) has risen a little further.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (112.80 up 0.68 pts, wkly, daily) fell sharply during … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 1 OctoberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailySome interesting observations this week.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($126.41 down $2.38, wkly, daily) fell further, taking the yield (3.77% up 0.15%, wkly, daily) to new recent highs. It is probably due for a trend reversal, if only for the short term.Have a look … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 24 SeptemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailySummaryGovernment bondsThe T-Bond price ($128.78 down $2.38, mthly, wkly, daily) fell further into new territory. Today I have added the monthly chart to give it a longer term perspective. Sobering stuff. The charts of the T-Bond yield (3.61% up 0.09%, mthly, wkly, daily) … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 17 SeptemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyAn interesting week. Govt bond yields soaring, gold price breaking key suppport level but the effect on Australian producers is dampened by the weak AUD/USD rate.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($131.16 down $1.78, wkly, daily) fell below its June low on Friday but recovered … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 10 SeptemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyThe main item this week is the tentative break of a short term downtrend in equity marketsGovernment bondsThe T-Bond price on the futures contract that I follow ($132.94 down $1.66, wkly, daily) is nearing the low of $131.03 seen in June. And the … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 3 SeptemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyMost commodities are weak and I would draw special attention to the iron ore fines price, which has broken support. This is obviously negative for BHO, RIO,FMG, and also the smaller producers. Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($134.59 down $3.09, wkly, daily) fell further … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 27 AugustPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyThe key event this week was the weakness in US equity markets on Friday, which suggests that the bear market rally could well be over.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($137.68 down $0.78, wkly, daily) fell a little further although picked up a bit on … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 20 AugustPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyMain feature this week was the sudden fall in the AUD in response to the surging USD. The hard currencies also fell back in the face of the strong USD. And has the rally in equity markets peaked?Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($138.47 down … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 13 AugustPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyNo great insights this week. Main features are the continuing rally in equity markets and the strength of the AUD.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($140.59 down $0.63, wkly, daily) did rally initially but then pulled back sharply, calling into question my theory on the … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 6 AugustPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyThe features of the week were renewed weakness in oil prices and the continuing rally in equity markets.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($141.22 down $2.78, wkly, daily) pulled back to the H&S neckline. It should rally from here.Fiat currenciesThe medium term uptrend in the … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 30 JulyPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyMain pointsImportantly, we may have seen the bottom in the government bond market and thus the top in long term interest rates. And the AUD could rise further, ditto commodities. But it is too early to call for the bottom in equity markets.Government … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 23 JulyPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyGovernment bondsThe T-Bond price ($142.1 up $2, wkly, daily) has tentatively completed a head & shoulders bottom formation that has its neckline at just under $142. If confirmed, it would suggest a target of around $154, being a rise of 8-9%. That would … Read more