Newcastle, Saturday 26 NovemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyA quiet week.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($127.59 up $2.16, wkly, daily) continued its rally. The next resistance level is at $131, relating to the June low, while a downtrend line is coming through at slightly higher levels. However, the yield of the 30-year … Read more
Cobar, Saturday 19 NovemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyI’m on the road so this is a shortened version. Nothing much happened this week anyway.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($125.44 up $1.62, wkly, daily) continued its bear market rally. It could go as high as $130 before failing.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (106.93 down … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 12 NovemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyThe highlights of the week were the surge in bond prices and fall in the USD, the strength in gold and the weakness in bitcoin.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($123.81 up $4.37, wkly, daily) broke its medium term downtrend (dating from August) on Thurday … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 5 NovemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyThe AUD remains in downtrend, while bitcoin and oil look good for a rally.The US stock market is still in a bear market.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($119.43 down $1.81, wkly, daily) remains in its downtrend.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (110.877 up 0.125 pts, wkly, … Read more
Cambridge NZ, Saturday 29 OctoberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyNothing of much note this week, just more of the same. No obvious change in trends as yet.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($121.25 up $2.125, wkly, daily) rallied but remains in its downtrend.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (110.75 down 1.26 pts, wkly, daily) pulled … Read more
Somerville NZ, Saturday 22 OctoberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyNthing much to report this weekGovernment bondsThe T-Bond price ($119.12 down $4.59, wkly, daily) fell sharply once again, so the 30-yr yield (4.31% up 0.33%, wkly, daily) rose sharply, especially on Friday. The longer term significance of this can be seen in … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 15 OctoberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyNothing much happening, just more of the same. And we are still in the bear market.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($123.72 down $1.81, wkly, daily) hit a new low on Thursday and remains in downtrend.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (113.31 up 0.52 pts, wkly, daily) … Read more
St Ives, Saturday 8 OctoberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailySummaryGovernment bondsThe T-Bond price ($125.53 down $0.88, wkly, daily) remains in downtrend after a brief mid-week rally. The T-Bond yield (3.84% up 0.08%, wkly, daily) has risen a little further.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (112.80 up 0.68 pts, wkly, daily) fell sharply during … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 1 OctoberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailySome interesting observations this week.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($126.41 down $2.38, wkly, daily) fell further, taking the yield (3.77% up 0.15%, wkly, daily) to new recent highs. It is probably due for a trend reversal, if only for the short term.Have a look … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 24 SeptemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailySummaryGovernment bondsThe T-Bond price ($128.78 down $2.38, mthly, wkly, daily) fell further into new territory. Today I have added the monthly chart to give it a longer term perspective. Sobering stuff. The charts of the T-Bond yield (3.61% up 0.09%, mthly, wkly, daily) … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 17 SeptemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyAn interesting week. Govt bond yields soaring, gold price breaking key suppport level but the effect on Australian producers is dampened by the weak AUD/USD rate.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($131.16 down $1.78, wkly, daily) fell below its June low on Friday but recovered … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 10 SeptemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyThe main item this week is the tentative break of a short term downtrend in equity marketsGovernment bondsThe T-Bond price on the futures contract that I follow ($132.94 down $1.66, wkly, daily) is nearing the low of $131.03 seen in June. And the … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 3 SeptemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyMost commodities are weak and I would draw special attention to the iron ore fines price, which has broken support. This is obviously negative for BHO, RIO,FMG, and also the smaller producers. Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($134.59 down $3.09, wkly, daily) fell further … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 27 AugustPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyThe key event this week was the weakness in US equity markets on Friday, which suggests that the bear market rally could well be over.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($137.68 down $0.78, wkly, daily) fell a little further although picked up a bit on … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 20 AugustPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyMain feature this week was the sudden fall in the AUD in response to the surging USD. The hard currencies also fell back in the face of the strong USD. And has the rally in equity markets peaked?Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($138.47 down … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 13 AugustPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyNo great insights this week. Main features are the continuing rally in equity markets and the strength of the AUD.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($140.59 down $0.63, wkly, daily) did rally initially but then pulled back sharply, calling into question my theory on the … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 6 AugustPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyThe features of the week were renewed weakness in oil prices and the continuing rally in equity markets.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($141.22 down $2.78, wkly, daily) pulled back to the H&S neckline. It should rally from here.Fiat currenciesThe medium term uptrend in the … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 30 JulyPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyMain pointsImportantly, we may have seen the bottom in the government bond market and thus the top in long term interest rates. And the AUD could rise further, ditto commodities. But it is too early to call for the bottom in equity markets.Government … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 23 JulyPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyGovernment bondsThe T-Bond price ($142.1 up $2, wkly, daily) has tentatively completed a head & shoulders bottom formation that has its neckline at just under $142. If confirmed, it would suggest a target of around $154, being a rise of 8-9%. That would … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 16 JulyPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyGovernment bondsThe T-Bond price ($140 up $3, wkly, daily) is trading in a consolidation zone which might or might not be the right shoulder of a head and shoulders bottom formation.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (108 up 1pt, mthly, wkly, daily) again rose strongly … Read more
Newcastle, Sunday 10 JulyPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyGovernment bondsThe T-Bond price ($136.84 down $2.50, wkly, daily) extended the previous week’s rally to a litttle over $142 by Wednesday then pulled back sharply to close lower on the week. The steep downtrend from the March high of over $160 has been … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 2 JulyPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyGovernment bondsThe T-Bond price ($139.34 up $3.31, wkly, daily) has rallied further, much more so than in the previous week, to the extent that one could argue the downtrend from the March high has been broken. But the power of the long term … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 25 JunePrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyGovernment bondsThe T-Bond price ($136.03 up $1.37, wkly, daily) has rallied but remains in downtrend.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (104.18 down 0.52 pts, wkly, daily) pulled back but remains in its uptrend.The AUD (US69.48¢ up 0.18¢, wkly, daily) remains in its downtrend of 2-3 … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 18 JunePrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyGovernment bondsThe T-Bond price ($134.65 down $0.97, wkly, daily) fell sharply earlier in the week to hit a new low, before rallying somewhat. Correspondingly, the yield (mthly, wkly, daily) rose to a high of 3.45%, matching the peak seen in 2018, before retreating … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 11 JunePrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyGovernment bondsThe T-Bond price ($135.62 down $2.50, wkly, daily) is approaching the bottom of its $135-$143 short term consolidation range.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (104.15 up 2.01 pts, wkly, daily) rose sharply on Thursday and Friday. It continues in its short term, medium term … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 4 JunePrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyGovernment bondsThe T-Bond price ($138.13 down $3.81, wkly, daily) pulled back short of resistance at $143.40. It is possibly entering a period of consolidation.But gilts (wkly) and Bunds (wkly) continued to fall in price.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (102.14 up 0.47 pts, wkly, daily) … Read more
Newport, Saturday 28 MayPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyGovernment bondsThe T-Bond price ($141.94 up $0.15, wkly, daily) is clawing its way back up in its rally from the recent low. If it breaks minor resistance at $143.40 the rally could extend but still remain well within its longer term downtrend.Fiat currenciesThe … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 21 May Price movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyGovernment bondsThe T-Bond price ($141.78 up $2.69, wkly, daily) rallied further this week and while still in medium term downtrend it wouldn’t take much more of a rise to change that view. Another couple of dollars would do it. Doesn’t mean it … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 14 MayPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyGovernment bondsThe T-Bond price ($139.09 up $2.78, wkly, daily) rallied during the week as I thought it might but remains in downtrend.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (104.56 up 0.90 pts, mthly, wkly, daily) sailed right through the 2016 high, so I was wrong last … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 7 MayPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyGovernment bondsThe T-Bond price ($136.31 down $4.37, wkly, daily) took another lurch downwards to match the low seen in 2018. A rally from this area of support is a reasonable possibility.Fiat currenciesFollowing its big surge in the previous week to match the 2016 … Read more