Newcastle, Saturday 15 Apr 2023Price movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyThe stock market rally continues, and the rally in BTC.Government bondsThe T-Bond price series to which I have access for my Metastock charts ($130.71 down $3.38, wkly, daily) (back adjusted) pulled back from that significant resistance at $135 which I mentioned in … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 8 AprilPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyOil prices have broken their downtrend but the iron ore price failed to break through.Government bondsThe price of the T-Bond whose data I have access to ($134.09 up $2.94, wkly, daily) is nearing significant resistance at around $135 on back-adjusted charts. The yield … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 1 AprilPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyThe S&P500 has broken out again. I have moved from cautious to neutral.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($131.15 down $1.18, wkly, daily) continues to consolidate below significant resistance at $133-134. And of course the 30-year T-Bond yield (3.69% up 0.45%, wkly, daily) is broadly … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 25 MarchPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyHave written a shortened version this week because I am travelling.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($132.34 down $0.38, wkly, daily) has still not broken through the resistance shown by the dotted line on the daily chart.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (103.12 down 0.59 pts, wkly, … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 18 MarchPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyOil to fall, hard currencies to rise against fiat currencies, questionmark continues over equity markets.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($132.72 up $3.38, wkly, daily) rallied strongly on Monday, to resistance provided by the highs in December and January, and subsequently has held on to … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 11 MarchPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyOn Friday big movements occurred in US markets as economic uncertainty increased. The T-Bond yield, the USD and the equity markets, all fell heavily.Government bondsAfter edging up a little earlier in the week the T-Bond price ($129.34 up $4.47, wkly, daily) rose sharply … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 4 MarchPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyIt has not yet been demonstrated that the equities bear market rally is over. And gold has broken its short-term downtrend.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($124.87 up $1.00, wkly, daily) had fallen to a new recent low by Thursday but on Friday it rallied … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 25 FebruaryPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyIs the bear market rally over?Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($123.88 down $1.91, wkly, daily) fell for the 4th straight week. So the 30 year bond yield (3.94% up 0.05%, wkly, daily) rose again. The bond security I have access to for the bond … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 18 FebruaryPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyThe AUD has broken its uptrend against the USD. And the S&P500 appears to have broken its short term uptrend.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($125.78 down $1.15, wkly, daily) fell during the week, as I had half expected. It meant that the bond yield … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 11 FebruaryPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyStock markets are hesitating. Will it turn ugly? I prefer to think not.Government bondsThe T-Bond price (126.94 down 3.13, wkly, daily) has broken its short-term uptrend line just three weeks after having cut its medium-term downtrend line. So the immediate trend is not … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 4 FebruaryPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyThe S&P 500 has confirmed the break of the bear market downtrend line, while the All Ords not nearing its all time high.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($130.06 down $0.09, wkly, daily) remains outside of its downtrend, but is just trading in a narrow … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 28 JanuaryPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyThe S&P 500 has at last broken its bear market downtrend line.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($130.15 down $0.31, wkly, daily) has pulled back further so I’m going to ignore the tentative break of the downtrend line that occurred in the previous week.Fiat currenciesThe … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 21 JanuaryPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyStill waiting for the S&P500 to jump either way, but other markets such as the All Ords seem to have made up their minds already.And bitcoin has arguably cut its bear market downtrend line.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($130.47 up $0.46, wkly, daily) earlier … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 14 JanuaryPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyThis week has seen a dramatic change. Most commodities and hard currencies are rallying hard, and so is the AUD. And equity markets too. Is the bear vanquished?Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($130.00 up $0.78, wkly, daily) has rallied a little further but is … Read more
St Ives, Saturday 7 JanuaryPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyEquity markets are at an interesting point. But when has that not been the case?And gold continues to look good.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($129.22 up $3.88, wkly, daily) rose during the week but I am not sure the rally will last much … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 31 DecemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyIn the week between Christmas and New Year nothing much happens as a general rule and this week was no different.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($125.3 down $1.81, wkly, daily) continues to pull back from its mid-December high of $132.5, within its long term … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 24 DecemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyA quiet week ahead of the Christmas break. Merry Christmas everyone.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($127.15 down $4.00, wkly, daily) has pulled back as expected, and the yield (3.83% up 0.29%, wkly, daily) has therefore increased. Bond prices in other jurisdictions have done likewise.Fiat … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 10 DecemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyThe key question is whether the bear market rally in equity markets has run its course.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($129.906 up $0.125, wkly, daily) rallied a little further. It is nearing a significant downtrend line and it is also right on the resistance … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 3 DecemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyUS bond yields have broken their uptrend, suggesting that bond prices could rally further. And stock markets are providing mixed signals. For the time being I am cautious.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($129.78 up $2.19, wkly, daily) rallied a little further. The next resistance … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 26 NovemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyA quiet week.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($127.59 up $2.16, wkly, daily) continued its rally. The next resistance level is at $131, relating to the June low, while a downtrend line is coming through at slightly higher levels. However, the yield of the 30-year … Read more
Cobar, Saturday 19 NovemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyI’m on the road so this is a shortened version. Nothing much happened this week anyway.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($125.44 up $1.62, wkly, daily) continued its bear market rally. It could go as high as $130 before failing.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (106.93 down … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 12 NovemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyThe highlights of the week were the surge in bond prices and fall in the USD, the strength in gold and the weakness in bitcoin.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($123.81 up $4.37, wkly, daily) broke its medium term downtrend (dating from August) on Thurday … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 5 NovemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyThe AUD remains in downtrend, while bitcoin and oil look good for a rally.The US stock market is still in a bear market.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($119.43 down $1.81, wkly, daily) remains in its downtrend.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (110.877 up 0.125 pts, wkly, … Read more
Cambridge NZ, Saturday 29 OctoberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyNothing of much note this week, just more of the same. No obvious change in trends as yet.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($121.25 up $2.125, wkly, daily) rallied but remains in its downtrend.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (110.75 down 1.26 pts, wkly, daily) pulled … Read more
Somerville NZ, Saturday 22 OctoberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyNthing much to report this weekGovernment bondsThe T-Bond price ($119.12 down $4.59, wkly, daily) fell sharply once again, so the 30-yr yield (4.31% up 0.33%, wkly, daily) rose sharply, especially on Friday. The longer term significance of this can be seen in … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 15 OctoberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyNothing much happening, just more of the same. And we are still in the bear market.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($123.72 down $1.81, wkly, daily) hit a new low on Thursday and remains in downtrend.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (113.31 up 0.52 pts, wkly, daily) … Read more
St Ives, Saturday 8 OctoberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailySummaryGovernment bondsThe T-Bond price ($125.53 down $0.88, wkly, daily) remains in downtrend after a brief mid-week rally. The T-Bond yield (3.84% up 0.08%, wkly, daily) has risen a little further.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (112.80 up 0.68 pts, wkly, daily) fell sharply during … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 1 OctoberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailySome interesting observations this week.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($126.41 down $2.38, wkly, daily) fell further, taking the yield (3.77% up 0.15%, wkly, daily) to new recent highs. It is probably due for a trend reversal, if only for the short term.Have a look … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 24 SeptemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailySummaryGovernment bondsThe T-Bond price ($128.78 down $2.38, mthly, wkly, daily) fell further into new territory. Today I have added the monthly chart to give it a longer term perspective. Sobering stuff. The charts of the T-Bond yield (3.61% up 0.09%, mthly, wkly, daily) … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 17 SeptemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyAn interesting week. Govt bond yields soaring, gold price breaking key suppport level but the effect on Australian producers is dampened by the weak AUD/USD rate.Government bondsThe T-Bond price ($131.16 down $1.78, wkly, daily) fell below its June low on Friday but recovered … Read more