Newcastle, Saturday 25 SeptemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyGovernment bondsThe quandary I had last week was resolved with lower T-Bond prices ($160.97 down $1.63, weekly, daily) and higher T-Bond yields (1.988% up 0.079%, weekly, daily). But it is difficult to call what happens next.Bond prices in other jurisdictions also fell. Fiat … Read more
Newcastle, Sunday 19 SeptemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyGovernment bondsThe triangular chart pattern for the T-Bond yield (1.909% down 0.025%, weekly, daily) has broken to the downside; normally this would suggest further falls to come.Such an outcome of course implies rising bond prices; but the problem with that interpretation is that … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 11 SeptemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyDid a shortened version this week. Took me much less time.Government bondsT-Bonds are still marking time within a triangular pattern. The yield chart (1.93%, daily) shows it best.Fiat currenciesNothing much happening.Hard currenciesDitto for gold. Pretty boring.The never-boring bitcoin ($44.90 down ~$5 per mB … Read more
Newcastle, Sunday 5 SeptemberPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyGovernment bondsThe T-Bond price ($162.90 down $1.59, weekly, daily) continues to consolidate within its recent trading range. Likewise, the T-Bond yield (1.94%, daily) is trading within a little triangle.Fiat currenciesThe uptrend in the USD index (92.04 down 0.65, weekly, daily) has now clearly … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 28 AugustPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyGovernment bondsThe T-Bond price ($164.50 down $1.25, weekly, daily) is still dithering over whether to rise or fall.Fiat currenciesThe USD Index (92.69 down 0.81, weekly, daily) pulled back after that tentative break of resistance during the previous week, so it is possible it … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 21 AugustPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyGovernment bondsThe T-Bond price ($165.76 up $1.36, weekly, daily) rallied further this week but hasn’t (as yet) matched the previous high. In recent weeks my opinion was that the price would fall but at this point I will await a clearer picture before … Read more
Newcastle, Sunday 15 AugustPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyGovernment bondsThe T-Bond price ($164.40 up $0.22, weekly, daily) continued its fall earlier in the week and in doing so broke the June/July uptrend. It rallied on Friday, leaving the price slightly up on the week, but the damage has been done and … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 7 AugustPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyGovernment bondsThe T-Bond price ($164.18 down $0.53, weekly, daily) rose to $167 on Tuesday, almost matching the June high of $167 1/4, then fell sharply on Friday. The June/July uptrend remains in place, just. The chart of the T-Bond yield (1.934%, daily) shows … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 31 JulyPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyGovernment bondsT-Bond prices (164.7, daily) are still in medium term uptrend and still trying to overcome resistance at current levels.Fiat currenciesThe USD Index (92.17 down 0.74, weekly, daily) reversed its uptrend this week, so all bets are off. I suspect it is going … Read more
Newcastle, Sunday 25 July 2021Price movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyGovernment bondsT-Bond prices ($164.03 up $0.21, weekly, daily) pushed through the downtrend line to which I have been referring for some weeks now, then pulled back. The uptrend is still well intact.Fiat currenciesThe USD Index (92.91 up 0.23, weekly, daily) continued its … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 17 JulyPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyGovernment bondsT-Bond prices ($163.81 up 1.19, weekly, daily) rose a little but did not exceed the high recorded in the previous week. So the “further downtrend line” that I referred to last week is still dominating the picture. If and only if it … Read more
Newcastle, Sunday 11 July 2021Price movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyGovernment bondsT-Bond prices ($162.62 up $1.72, weekly, daily) pushed through the red line then pulled back sharply on Friday. The peak of $164.93 was a little below a further downtrend line.Fiat currenciesThe USD Index (92.13 down 0.10 pts, weekly, daily) has lost … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 3 JulyPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyGovernment bondsT-Bond prices ($160.90 up $2.15, weekly, daily) continue in their short term uptrend but remain below resistance drawn in red on my chart. Govt bonds in other jurisdictions are rallying too.Fiat currenciesThe USD Index (92.23 up 0.38 pts, weekly, daily) remains in … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 26 JunePrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyGovernment bondsT-Bond prices ($158.75 down $2.19, weekly, daily) rose to a high on Monday then pulled back to close down on the week. The short term uptrend remains intact but Monday’s peak hit a longer term downtrend line (drawn in red on the … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 19 JunePrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyGovernment bondsT-Bond prices (160.94 up 1.72) ticked up a little further this week. Rather than charts of bond prices, I include charts of the yield (2.03% down 0.13%, weekly, daily) because the break of trend is very clear.In contrast, bond prices in other … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 12 JunePrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyGovernment bondsT-Bond prices (159.21 up 1.75, weekly, daily) appear to be breaking upwards out of their three month consolidation zone. At the same time they have broken a downtrend line. There is still a final barrier to overcome before it becomes certain that … Read more
Newcastle, Sunday 30 MayPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyGovernment bondsThe T-Bond price ($158.125 up $0.875, weekly, daily) kicked up a touch but remains in its consolidation zone within its downtrend of some months duration.The Ozbond price ($98.37 up 0.05, weekly, daily) is wedging upwards within its downtrend and are a week … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 22 MayPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not dailyGovernment bondsThe T-Bond price ($157.25 up $0.44, weekly, daily) remains in its consolidation zone, so if a change of sentiment is occurring it’s very slow. Ditto the OzBond ($98.33 up $0.07, weekly, daily).Fiat currenciesThe USD Index (90.02 down 0.30 pts, weekly, daily) recorded … Read more
Newcastle, Sunday 16 MayPrice movements noted in this article are weekly not daily.Government bondsI have spent a little more time than usual on T-Bonds today because it seems a change in sentiment is occurring, possibly triggered by that high CPI figure this week. That has an impact on stock valuations, especially for high growth companies … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 8 MayGovernment bondsOn Friday the T-Bond price (157.96 up 0.72 on the week, weekly, daily) broke resistance in a strong surge upward, only to pull back sharply and in fact close a little lower on the day. Perhaps the uptrend since March, within the overall bear market, has run its course.The yield chart … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 1 MayGovernment bondsLast week I commented that T-Bond prices ($157.25 down $1.03, weekly, daily) were on the verge of breaking their downtrend. In the event they were unable to do so, at least for the time being, and instead fell back.Gilts (£127.67 down £0.93, weekly, daily), Eurobunds (€170.00 down €0.83, weekly, daily) and … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 24 AprilGovernment bondsT-Bond prices (158.28 + 0.28, weekly, daily) are on the verge of breaking their downtrend.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (90.85 – 0.740, weekly, daily) continues to pull back after its initial surge out of its downtrend in early March.Having broken its uptrend in early March, the AUD (77.45 + 0.12, weekly, daily) … Read more
Newcastle, Sunday 18 AprilAll price movements recorded here are weekly not daily.Government bondsThe T-Bond price (158.00 +1.50, weekly, daily) rallied sharply and appeared to have cut its short term downtrend on Thursday only to pull back on Friday. A rise above Thursday’s high would confirm the break of trend.Fiat currenciesThe USD Index (91.56 – 0.61, … Read more
Newcastle, Sunday 11 AprilNote that all price movements included within the text are weekly not dailyGovernment bondsThe T-Bond price (156.50 + 0.28, weekly, daily) continues to consolidate within its downtrend.Bonds in other jurisdictions are going likewise, with the OzBond remaining in its triangle.Fiat currenciesThe USD Index (92.16 – 0.85, weekly, daily) has cut the uptrend … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 3 April Government bondsThe T-Bond price (156.21 up 0.25, weekly, daily) closed virtually unchanged this week and appears to be forming a consolidation pattern within its downtrend.The same comment applies to bond prices in other jurisdictions, including the Australian 10yr bond (98.19 down 0.13, weekly, daily) where the consolidation pattern is taking the … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 27 MarchGovernment bondsT-Bond prices (155.96, weekly, daily) managed a small rally this week but still made a lower high so the downtrend remains in place at this point.Fiat currenciesThe USD Index (92.77, weekly, daily) rose to a new rally high, thus confirming its uptrend.The corollary is that the AUD (76.36, weekly, daily) fell. … Read more
Newcastle, Sunday 21 MarchGovernment bondsAnother big fall in T-Bond prices (154.09, weekly, daily) this week. But the declines were much smaller in other jurisdictions, especially in moribund Europe where the Eurobund price (171.22, weekly, daily) actually rose.Fiat currenciesThe USD Index (91.919, weekly, daily) rose a touch more than the close of the previous week but … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 13 MarchGovernment bondsT-Bond prices (155.56, monthly, weekly, daily) fell further during the week.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (91.67, weekly, daily) pulled back a little during the week but the fact remains that the downtrend has been broken so I would expect the index to strengthen in coming weeks.The same thing can be said in … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 6 MarchGovernment bondsT-Bond prices (157, monthly, weekly) fell again this week.Taking a longer term view of T-Bond prices back to 1979 as seen in the monthly chart provides an interesting perspective. T-bonds have been trading in a broad well-defined up-channel since the mid 80s. The current weakness is merely a downwards blip within … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 27 FebruaryGovernment bondsT-Bond prices (160.75, weekly, daily) fell sharply once again, albeit they rallied a little yesterday, and so yields soared (2.182%, weekly, daily).Bond prices in the other jurisdictions I follow are falling too but to a lesser extent.Fiat currenciesThe USD Index (90.88, weekly, daily) rallied on Friday so closed slightly up over … Read more