Newcastle, Saturday 20 FebruaryGovernment bondsThe T-Bond price (163.09, daily) fell further in the week, to a new recent low. The downtrend in price, and the uptrend in yield (2.14%, daily), is now well established.Gilts (daily) Bunds (daily) and Ozzies (daily) are also plummeting.Fiat currenciesThe USD Index (90.36, weekly, daily) continues in downtrend, while the AUD … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 13 FebruaryGovernment bondsAfter consolidating earlier in the week, T-Bond prices (166.15, daily) fell to a new low on Friday to continue their bear market.Fiat currenciesThe USD Index (90.48, weekly, daily) weakened during the week thus suggesting that the downtrend might still be in place. It would take a move to above 91.58, being … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 6 FebruaryGovernment bondsT-Bond prices (166.71, daily) feel further this week so yields (1.97%, daily) rose further.Bond prices are doing the same in the other jurisdictions: in Europe (Eurobunds, daily), in the UK (Gilts, daily) and in Australia (OZbonds, daily). This is truly historic.Fiat currenciesLast week I thought the USD was about to fall … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 30 JanuaryGovernment bondsT-Bond prices ($168.71, daily) rallied a little earlier in the week then fell back; it looks as if yields (1.85%, daily) could be about to break out again.Bonds in other jurisdictions look similar.Fiat currenciesI am probably wrong but I get the impression when looking at its chart that the USD Index … Read more
Newcastle, Sunday 24 JanuaryI am cutting this report short because of other commitments (we have family staying).Government bondsT-Bonds continued to trade in a narrow range, within their recently-established long term downtrend (well, that is my theory, anyway).Fiat currenciesThe USD Index (90.24, weekly) remains in its downtrend and the AUD (77.16¢, weekly) remains in its uptrend.Hard … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 16 JanuarySome of you have expressed the wish to receive articles posted on the website via email. You can now choose this option by scrolling to the bottom of any post, adding a comment, clicking on the box for “Notify me of any new posts by email” then clicking on the box for … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 9 JanuarySome of you have expressed the wish to receive articles posted on the website via email. You can now choose this option by scrolling to the bottom of any post, adding a comment, clicking on the box for “Notify me of any new posts by email” then clicking on the box for … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 2 JanuarySome of you expressed have the wish to receive articles posted on the website via email. You can now choose this option by scrolling to the bottom of any post, adding a comment, clicking on the box for “Notify me of any new posts by email” then clicking on the box for … Read more
St Ives, Saturday 26 DecemberGovernment bondsT-Bond prices scarcely moved during the week so I won’t comment further.Fiat currenciesThe USD Index (90.32, weekly, daily) did not do a great deal during the week but remains in a technically weak position.Likewise the AUD (75.99¢, weekly, daily) scarcely moved but still appears to be on its way to … Read more
Newcastle, Sunday 20 DecemberThe news of the week is that bitcoin has at last broken through that old record high of around $19,500 achieved in December 2017. This has major implications, as detailed in the body of this report.Government bondsT-Bond prices (172.1, daily) remain in their consolidation triangle. still within the uptrend since the low … Read more
Newcastle, Sunday 13 DecemberGovernment bondsT-Bond prices (173.7, daily) remain in their recent trading range but Gilts (135.8, daily) have been strong.Fiat currenciesThe USD Index (90.98, wkly, daily) scarcely moved during the week and remains in its downtrend.The AUD (75.33¢, wkly, daily) is now on its way to test the next level of resistance at 81.2¢.Hard … Read more
Newcastle, Sunday 6 DecemberGovernment bondsT-Bond prices (172, daily) fell during the week so the medium term downtrend remains intact. A further fall to below 170 would breach the long term uptrend, while a rise above 176 would suggest a new medium term uptrend.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (90.7, weekly, daily) has confirmed the break of support … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 28 NovemberGovernment bondsT-Bond prices (174, daily) scarcely moved this week. As I said previously, a new uptrend would be confirmed if it rises above 176.Fiat currenciesThe USD Index (91.79, weekly, daily) has cut support on a tentative basis. The break would be confirmed upon a fall below the September low of 91.75.Unsurprisingly, the … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 21 NovemberGovernment bondsThe bounce in T-Bonds (174, daily) continued this week. A new uptrend would be confirmed if it rises above 176.The rally continued in other jurisdictions too, and now I think the tentative breach of their long term uptrends, that occurred in the previous week, can probably be ignored.Fiat currenciesThe USD Index … Read more
Newcastle, Sunday 15 NovemberI’m home and relieved to have a good internet connection again!Government bondsThe break of short term downtrend for T-Bonds (172, daily) was not confirmed and instead they fell to once again test the longer term uptrend line, then bounced. As I stated last week, a break of 176 would confirm a new … Read more
Newcastle, Sunday 8 NovemberSites that offer free research generally get paid by the companies they cover. I have opted to stay independent but I would like some compensation for my time and outlay. The system of voluntary contributions that I put in place some years ago has not been all that successful so I have … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 31 OctoberGovernment bondsT-Bond prices ($172, daily) pulled back a little further within their short term downtrend during the week, bringing them a little closer to longer term support.Fiat currenciesThe USD Index (94.04, weekly, daily) appears to have broken its medium downtrend line at last, as seen on the daily chart. It is interesting … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 24 OctoberGovernment bondsThe downtrend in T-Bond prices ($172.5, wkly, daily) resumed this week. Before too long it will come up against the longer term uptrend line dating back to 2018. The corollary is that yields (1.645%, daily) have risen.In other jurisdictions bond prices have pulled back too, in their case after a strong … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 17 OctoberGovernment bondsT-Bond prices (174.90, daily) rallied during the week then fell away on Friday after they failed to break through the downtrend. But Gilts (daily) have tentatively broken upwards, Eurobunds (daily) have clearly broken upwards, and OZbonds (daily) have roared away.Fiat currenciesThe USD Index (93.68, daily, 4hrly) rallied earlier in the week … Read more
St Ives, Saturday 10 OctoberGovernment bondsThe two month downtrend in T-Bond prices (daily) continued, the corollary being rising yields (daily).Fiat currenciesThe dotted red line has won the battle. I talk of course of the USD Index (93.057, daily, 4hrly). So the downtrend in the USD has been confirmed.It is no surprise, then, to see that … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 3 OctoberGovernment bondsT-Bonds (175.90, weekly, daily) look as if they could break down again but that has not occurred as yet and in fact it could go either way. The yield chart (1.481%, daily) tells the same story.Fiat currenciesThe USD Index (93.84, daily, 4hrly) weakened this week and clearly the red line of … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 26 SeptemberGovernment bondsT-Bonds (daily) are hugging their uptrend.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (94.64, daily) popped above short term resistance at 93.60 on Monday and then rallied strongly. At this point it has come up against resistance in the form of another downtrend line (drawn in red) albeit the strength of the resistance is probably … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 19 SeptemberGovernment bondsNot much change over the week.Fiat currenciesThe USD Index (93.00) would appear to have bottomed but it needs to exceed 93.50 to have a chance of forming a new uptrend.The AUD (72.98¢) remains in broad uptrend.Hard currenciesGold continues to consolidate within its medium and long term uptrend.Bitcoin ($10,960) has rallied to … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 12 SeptemberGovernment bondsNo significant change this week. Here is the T-Bond price chart (daily).Fiat currenciesThe USD Index (93.3, daily, 4hrly) has broken its downtrend, as I thought it might do. Ordinarily this would suggest the AUD (72.8¢, daily, 4hrly) could fall against the USD but at this point the uptrend is intact. Hard … Read more
Newcastle, Sunday 6 SeptemberGovernment bondsT-Bond prices (daily) rose earlier in the week only to be slammed down on Friday. The broad uptrend is intact.Am not sure of the significance of the OzBond (daily) in the overall scheme of things but anyway for what it is worth and ignoring that “fat finger” day in March, the … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 29 AugustGovernment bondsT-Bond prices ($176, daily) fell further this week, so yields (1.51%, daily) rose. Bond prices fell in other jurisdictions too, including Australian 10 year bonds ($99, daily).Fiat currenciesThe USD Index (92.4 pts, weekly, daily, 4hrly) fell further this week and is now on (weak) support offered by an uptrend line.So the … Read more
Newcastle, Sunday 23 AugustI am making this brief today because now that I have my computer back, I have a lot of other stuff to get through.Government bondsT-Bonds (daily) rallied a little during the week. Bonds in other jurisdictions did likewise.Fiat currenciesThe USD index (daily, 4hr) remains in its trading range. The AUD (71.61¢, daily) … Read more
Newcastle, Sunday 16 August 2020Government bondsT-Bond prices (weekly, daily) pulled back further during the week so yields (daily) increased. Bond prices elsewhere did likewise. It is not clear at this point whether or this is just a minor correction in an overall bull market but I guess that is how we should treat it until … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 8 August 2020Government bondsT-Bonds (CCS daily, CCB daily) pulled back a touch this week; the resistance line drawn on the CCS chart was stronger than I thought it would be and I probably should be using that rather than the CCB (back adjusted) chart.Bonds in other jurisdictions generally pulled back too.Fiat currenciesThe USD … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 1 AugustGovernment bondsT-Bond prices (daily) continued in their uptrend so yields (daily) continued their fall. Bond prices in other jurisdictions did likewise and I note that OzBonds (daily) broke a level of resistance.Fiat currenciesAnother big fall in the USD Index (weekly) propelled the AUD (71.42¢, weekly, daily) higher. The EUR (weekly) appears to … Read more