Newcastle, Saturday 25 JulyGovernment bondsBond prices continue their consolidation with T-Bonds having an upward biase.Fiat currenciesThat support I mentioned last week for the USD Index (weekly, daily, 4-hrly) did not hold and so the currency fell sharply and closed below the low reached in March.The corollary is that the AUD (weekly, daily, 4hrly) broke through … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 18 JulyGovernment bondsT-Bond prices (daily) continue to consolidate just below increasingly important resistance. Ditto for other jurisdictions; for example here is the OzBond chart (daily).Fiat currenciesThe short term downtrend in the USD Index (4-hourly) is still in play, The longer term picture (weekly, daily) reveals that it is nearing support.So it is no … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 11 JulyGovernment bondsThe rally continues in T-Bond prices (daily). But on Friday it hit minor resistance and pulled back a touch. We will see how important that resistance is next week.Fiat currenciesThe short term uptrend in the USD Index (daily, 4hr) broke down on Monday and a short term downtrend is now in … Read more
Newcastle, Sunday 5 JulyGovernment bondsThe uptrend continues. Here is the T-Bond chart (daily). Bond prices in other jurisdictions are doing similarily.Fiat currenciesThe USD Index (daily, 4hrs) appears to be forming a shallower uptrend as mentioned last week.The AUD (daily, 4hrs) seems to be proving my caution wrong, for the time being anyway.Hard currenciesThe AUD gold … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 27 JuneGovernment bondsAn uptrend appears to be underway in all bond markets. It started last week in other markets and this week the US joined them. Here is the daily chart of T-Bonds.Fiat currenciesThe USD index 4hrly pulled back earlier in the week and may be forming a shallower uptrend, or not. So … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 20 JuneGovernment bondsThe T-Bond price pulled back after that tentative break of the downtrend last week so the jury is still out. But in the UK, Europe and Australia it is clear that the downrend has broken. That is not to say a new uptrend will emerge; it’s a possibility only.Fiat currenciesAfter an … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 13 JuneGovernment bondsBond prices rallied across the board this week. Downtrends in place since February has been cut albeit only tentatively at this point. The T-Bond is a good example.Fiat currenciesThe USD bottomed during the week as seen the 4hr chart. I would think the currency could go higher in the short term.The … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 6 June 2020Government bondsThe tentative break in T-Bond prices last week was confirmed this week with a significant 3-4% fall, as seen in the weekly and daily charts). There is some support about 5% lower again. The daily yield graph shows the break more clearly.Bond prices eslewhere have fallen also. Here are the … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 30 MayGovernment bondsThe short term uptrend line in T-Bond prices in place since January this year was tentatively broken last week and that remains the case this week. What we don’t know yet is whether the uptrend will resume on a lower gradient or whether it will break down.The daily yield graph of … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 23 MayGovernment bondsMarkets and trendlines – sometimes they work and sometimes they don’t. Also trends and trendlines – sometimes trends don’t have a trendline. So the T-Bond price broke a couple of trendlines on Monday but then reversed upwards into the consolidation zone for the rest of the week; the trend is still … Read more
Newcastle, Tuesday 19 MayReprieve for stock marketsI spoke too soon on the weekend, when I thought the US market (and thus all markets) were about to embark on the second leg down.Last night the US markets absolutely roared away and so the immediate danger has passed. Here is the hourly chart of the S&P 500. … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 16 MayGovernment bondsT-Bonds continue to trade within a consolidation zone now of 7 weeks duration; but they remain in the medium term uptrend that commenced in January. Gilts and Eurobunds are also in medium term uptrends. So that makes OzBonds an outlier with its trend of lower highs.Fiat currenciesOver the week the USD … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 9 May Government bondsNo significent changes in bond prices this week.Fiat currenciesThe USD index continues in its broad consolidation pattern as seen in the 4hr chart, rising through Monday to Thursday then falling back yesterday.In contrast the AUD has a broadly upward bias, in recent weeks forming a series of higher highs and … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 2 May Government bondsGovernment bonds are generally still in consolidation mode; here is the daily chart of T-Bonds. But Eurobunds jumped on Friday.Fiat currenciesAfter having encountered resistance at 100.9 pts during the previous week, the USD Index fell during the week to close at 98.9 pts as seen on the 4 hour chart. … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 25 April Government bondsLittle change in prices this week.Fiat currenciesThe USD Index rose a little further this week as seen in the 4hr chart, but fell back upon encountering resistance at just under 101 pts.The AUD is holding up better than I had expected, closing the week at 63.85¢. The 4hr chart gives … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 18 April Government bondsGovernment bond prices consolidated during the week and I have nothing more to add. Here is the T-Bond price on a daily basis.Fiat currenciesThe USD Index rose a little during the week but volatility has reduced. Here is the 4hr chart.The AUD has reached an interesting point. This 4hr chart … Read more
Newcastle, Friday 10 April Government bondsT-Bond prices fell back a little during the week thus defining a secondary peak, as seen in the daily chart. It suggests prices may have topped out.Fiat currenciesA secondary peak has also been formed by the USD Index, as seen in the 4 hour chart. It suggests further weakness ahead.The … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 4 April Government bondsLittle change this week.Fiat currenciesThe close in the USD Index for the previous week proved to be the low, with the rally this week clawing back half of the previous loss. This chart uses 4 hour increments, with the close on 27 March marked by the dotted blue line.The 4-hour … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 28 March Government bondsThey traded in a relatively tight band during the week, as illustrated by the daily chart of T-Bond prices.Fiat currenciesThe USD Index collapsed from its recent high this week. Here’s the daily chart, showing the continuation of the recent huge volatility. The top formation and subsequent collapse is best seen … Read more
Newcastle, Sunday, 22 March Government bondsT-Bond prices have pulled back strongly as seen in the daily chart (it would be best illustrated in an hourly chart but I don’t have access to bond charts with less than daily increments).Thus the bond yield has increased. The volatility is such that I won’t attempt to forecast where … Read more
Perth, Saturday 14 March Government bondsT-Bonds hit a new record on Monday then pulled back very sharply. Here is the daily chart. The volatility is such that is difficult to know what comes next, but perhaps that was the high. For a while anyway.Government bonds in other jurisdictions did likewise and indeed, the evidence of … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 7 March 2020 Government bondsWow! Another huge jump in bond prices and huge fall in bond yields on Friday. Here are the weekly charts of T-Bond prices and yields. A recession is clearly being predicted. Gilts, Eurobunds and Ossies have a similar message.Fiat currenciesThe USD Index has fallen out of bed, with the … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 29 February Government bondsWow! T-Bonds have shot up to a new record high! Which means the yield has fallen to a new record low. Most of the move occurred yesterday. For the bigger picture, here are the price and yield on monthly charts. This must be heralding recession?Bond prices also rose elsewhere; the … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 22 February 2020 Government bondsT-Bonds have jumped in price and are now testing the record high seen in August 2019. The corollary is that the yield has fallen to record lows. So presumably the market believes stock prices will fall and/or the economy will weaken. What we are seeing is a flight to … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 15 February Government bondsLittle change in prices so won’t dwell on it.Fiat currenciesThe USD Index rose further this week.The AUD has not yet broken support at around 66.6¢ support, but one would assume it will do so eventually.Hard currenciesThe uptrend in gold continues. In USD terms it is currently consolidating in a little … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 8 February Government bondsThe T-Bond price fell back earlier in the week then surged on Friday, leaving the week down slightly. Still looking for a test of the highs.Similar elsewhere.Fiat currenciesThe rally in the USD Index accelerated during the week; here are the weekly and daily charts. The weakest currencies were the EUR … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 1 FebruaryEverything at present is being driven by the virus pandemic, whether it be bonds, fiat currencies, hard currencies, commodities or stocks. No-one knows how bad it will get. If history is any guide it will be over within weeks but there is always that niggling fear it will be worse. Government bondsAll … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 25 January Government bondsWell, I am going to have to change my view on bond prices. I thought they were on the way down but it doesn’t look like it right now because there have been big rallies around the world. At the least, further falls have been postponed indefinitely. There is even … Read more
Newcastle, 18 January 2020 Government bondsLittle change to T-Bond prices this week so no change to view. Here is the weekly chart of T-Bond yields.But Gilt prices rallied strongly.Fiat currenciesMy thesis that the USD Index will fall remains intact. Ditto that the AUD will rise against the USD.The rise of the CNY against the USD … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 11 January Government bondsProbably still topping out. Today I show you the inverse of the US T-Bond price, being the interest yield, on a daily basis. The yield fell early in the week then rallied. The chart is reaching an interesting juncture, being the intersection of the medium term downtrend in place since … Read more