Newcastle, Saturday 4 January Government bondsIt still looks as if bond prices have topped out in the long term. Here is the weekly chart of T-Bonds.Fiat currenciesThe USD Index has fallen further to a new recent low, pretty much confirming the break of trend. A fall below the June 2019 low would settle it.The CNY … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 28 December Government bondsThere was little movement in bonds prices during the week. My view remains that we saw the top earlier this year.Fiat currenciesIt still looks to me that the USD has peaked.The corollary is that the AUD has clearly cut its downtrend. Now at 69.77¢, I envisage it strengthening considerable further … Read more
Newcastle, 21 December 2019 Government bondsNo changes worth commenting on.Fiat currenciesThe USD Index has rallied back into its upchannel after just one week below it. Does that negate the negative view? Will continue to monitor.The corollary is that for the present the AUD remains in its downchannel.Hard currenciesThere were only very minor price movements in … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 14 December Government bondsVery little changed this week with US bonds up a touch and European down a touch. I still believe we are seeing a top.Fiat currenciesThe USD Index broke down through its upchannel mid week but closed back in the channel on Friday. So it’s a warning that perhaps I have … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 7 DecemberThis is just a quick run through the charts because of lack of time. Government bondsGovernment bond prices remain in downtrend after topping out in August. Here are the weekly and daily charts of T-Bonds.Fiat currenciesThe USD Index fell during the week but remains within its upchannel. The corollary is that the … Read more
Newcastle, Saturday 30 November Government bondsBond prices marked time during the week, leaving their chart pictures unchanged.Fiat currenciesThe USD Index scarcely changed during the week but the AUD weakened a touch further to 67.64¢. I still think there is further weakness to come. It certainly remains in its medium term down-channel and cut a short … Read more
Burra, Saturday 23 NovemberThe internet connection is poor here so I cannot do everything I need. Government bondsBond prices rose further during the week but I still think we have seen the top and that the next significant move will be down. Here are the weekly and daily charts of US T-Bond prices.Fiat currenciesCharts unavailable. … Read more
Coonawarra, Sat 16 Nov Government bondsBond prices bounced and yields fell during the week but the theory that a major top has been formed remains intact. For example, here are the weekly and daily charts of T-Bond prices.Fiat currenciesThe USD Index fell a little but so did the AUD. Here are the weekly and daily … Read more
Saturday 9 November Government bondsBond prices weakened further during the week as seen in this weekly chart of T-Bond prices. It is looking more and more like a major top has been completed. For local perspective here is a weekly chart of the Australian 10 year bond price.This could mean that inflation is increase and/or, … Read more
Saturday 2 November Government bondsThe T-Bond price dropped earlier in the week then bounced off its uptrend line to form an intermediate low and finished the week higher overall. So for now the uptrend in place since November 2018 is intact, as seen in the daily chart. It still looks to me that a major … Read more
Sunday 27 October Government bondsSmall movements in bond prices this week and it remains a real possibility that they have topped out. I won’t bore you with the charts this time.Fiat currenciesNothing much changed this week so won’t go into details.Hard currenciesThe jury remains out on the short term direction in gold prices. Here are … Read more
Sunday 20 October Government bondsBond prices fell during the week, putting at risk the uptrend. T-Bonds have made a lower high and have cut a secondary short term uptrend. Here is the corresponding yield chart, showing the very strong support tested in September.Gilts, Eurobunds and Ozbonds show a similar pattern.Fiat currenciesThe USD Index has taken … Read more
Saturday 5 October Government bondsThere was a big rally in bond prices during the week. So T-Bonds are approaching their high; ditto Gilts and Ozbonds.Fiat currenciesI have added a few lines onto the daily chart for the USD Index to show that it is currently in an ascending wedge pattern. On Tuesday it reached the … Read more
Saturday 28 September Government bondsBond prices picked up during the week so yields went down, but there were no movements suggesting important changes in direction. Here is the weekly yield chart for 30 year T-Bonds, while here is a closer view using the daily chart.Fiat currenciesThe USD Index is approaching the top of its upchannel, … Read more
Saturday 21 September Government bondsBond prices clawed back some of their losses from the previous week. Here is a price chart of the US Treasury Bond and the corresponding yield chart.Fiat currenciesThe USD Index rose slightly in its upchannel, while the AUD has weakened within its downtrend.Hard currenciesThe previous week’s tentative break of the medium-term … Read more
Saturday 14 September 2019 Government bondsGovernment bonds have collapsed in price, resulting in a big increase in yields. Here are the weekly charts of T-Bonds, Gilts, Eurobunds and Ozbonds. And here is the T-Bond yield chart. I can’t find yield charts for the other bonds, but I suppose I could just invert the price charts … Read more
Saturday 7 September Government bondsPrices pulled back a little this week as fears of recession abated and equity markets stabilised. Here is the US Treasury Bond on a weekly basis.Fiat currenciesThe USD Index weakened off a little but remains in its shallow upchannel.The AUD rallied to finish the week at US68.45¢. To me, it remains … Read more
Saturday 31 AugustGovernment bondsPrices this week either stabilised at these record levels or moved a touch higher.Fiat currenciesThe USD Index rose to the top of its trading range but not above it at this point.The AUD is holding on for the time being but in my view will give way in due course. The longer … Read more
Saturday 24 August Government bondsBond prices pulled back a touch after the huge gains in previous weeks. No change to view. Here are the weekly and daily yield charts for 30 yr T-Bonds.Fiat currenciesThe USD Index remains in its consolidation zone within what I am still interpreting as a long term uptrend. The corollary is … Read more
Saturday 17 August Government bondsAll the bonds I follow rose in price this week and importantly, Treasury Bonds have at last joined with Gilts, Eurobunds and Ozbonds in going to new highs; so T-Bond yields have fallen to record post WW2 lows.The debate over what the yield inversion means is raging worldwide. I personally like … Read more
Saturday 10 August Voluntary paymentThose of you who think this service is worth paying for can now do so. You can make a voluntary contribution to my bank account, the details of which are shown here. In due course I would like to provide an easier way to pay via credit card or Paypal – … Read more
Saturday 3 August Voluntary paymentThose of you who think this service is worth paying for can now do so. You can make a voluntary contribution to my bank account, the details of which are shown here. In due course I would like to provide an easier way to pay via credit card or Paypal – … Read more
Saturday 27 JulyGovernment bondsThere was little change to Treasuries during the week but Gilts flirted with their high, Eurobunds went to a new record high and Ozibonds did also.Fiat currenciesThe USD Index strengthened significantly during the week and is now near the top of its recent trading range. This was probably the main factor behind … Read more
Saturday 20 JulyVoluntary paymentThose of you who think this service is worth paying for can now do so. You can make a voluntary contribution to my bank account, the details of which are shown here. In due course I would like to provide an easier way to pay via credit card or Paypal – just … Read more
Saturday 13 JulyI am cutting this article short today because I have run out of time.Government bondsBond prices fell across the board during the week. It was the most significant correction in many weeks. At this point, their medium term uptrends are still in place. Here is the 30 yr US Treasury bond.Fiat currenciesNot much … Read more
Sunday 7 JulyInterest ratesUS treaury prices pulled back a bit during the week, so yields rose. But the uptrend in prices (and the downtrend in yields) remains in place.Gilt and Eurobund prices rose to new record highs.Fiat currenciesDuring the week the USD Index rallied and has returned to its consolidation zone, for now. Here are … Read more
Saturday 29 JuneInterest ratesGovernment bond prices continued their rise but at a reduced rate.Fiat currenciesThe USD Index slipped a little further during the week, confirming the new downtrend. Here it is on the daily chart.The AUD rallied to finish the week over 70¢, matching the high attained earlier in the month as seen on the … Read more
Sunday 23 JuneSome excitement this week, with gold and bitcoin being absolutely riveting.Interest ratesThe week saw yet another surge in government bond prices, and a consequent fall in bond yields, albeit there was a bounce on Friday. I won’t bore you with their charts.Fiat currenciesCrucially, the USD Index broke support on Friday, leaving it considerably … Read more
Saturday 15 JuneInterest ratesGovernment bonds generally consolidated their price gains this week after the big rise over the previous two or three weeks, the exception being the Ozbond price which hit a new high. For all the bonds I monitor, their uptrends remain in place.Fiat currenciesThe USD Index held support earlier in the week then … Read more
Saturday 8 JuneInterest ratesGovernment bonds in all major jurisdictions increased further in price during the week, resulting in still lower bond yields. Taking the key 30 year US Treasury bond as an example, here is a monthly chart of yields going back to 1993, and here is a weekly chart back to 2008. Could treasury … Read more